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I think I have my answer

I've been saying that the next great crisis doesn't originate here- it will come from either China or Europe.


Here's the twist- because we now think we know how to "fix" that economic stuff, be it here, the EU or China, it isn't going to begin in markets.


It will be a political crisis that begins with the unravelling of the EU but China is perched on a precipice already, and it will certainly be felt here both politically and economically.


The world looks different this morning.


As far as grains go, it only matters at the moment insofar as heavy spec longs were already in trouble. That's how markets work, it isn't a neat matrix where you plug in S and D and it spits out a number.

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6 Replies

Re: I think I have my answer

Don't be fooled.


The Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets will be buying index futures to stabilize markets as it has periodically since formation in 1987.


And sages will tell you all is well.


I'm guessing we have a rolling global political crisis that will run for years.

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Honored Advisor

Re: I think I have my answer

This isn't new...


We've had a rolling political crisis for years, in this country it really got rolling with LBJ and his " great society". That broke up the family in very poor areas.


Nixon did in the gold standard and really started the ball rolling on inflating paper money. Then just for bonus points he tossed in the embargo bomb in farm country along with wage controls.


Carter though anything stupid anybody else could do , he could do better. He was right, he even created a "misery index" yep the numbers ere worse after him than before him.


Clinton screwed with the banking industry and forced lenders to give everybody a loan even if they could show they could never pay it off. That came to a head in 2008. 


The last seven and a half years are beyond adjectives to describe the disaster.

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Re: I think I have my answer

If I recall you have a banker in the family.


Perhaps the source of The Big Lie?

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Re: I think I have my answer

We also had what was, to that date, an unprecedented banking crisis that required a huge bailout develop during the Reagan years- primarily in the S and L sector.


But GHWB got to deal with that.



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Honored Advisor

Re: I think I have my answer

First, no banker in my  family that I know of. 

I do visit with a couple once in a while. One of them is the president  of a multi location operation that comes out of his office to glad hand me when I go in to do a little banking.. I like the free bennies like free checking, free wire transfers, etc they offer. 

 The other banker I visit with once in a while is the only decent  loan officer  I ever had, when I was really down and  needed help he was there. Only one out of about 15 I asked for help that said sure, no problem. Gold star kind of guy. Different small town bank than the first guy.


Never claimed my list was complete, just saying this political/financial mess wasn't new or just starting. 

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Senior Advisor

Re: I think I have my answer

good eveing.....i think it's still before midnight !!


been busy around here, and frankly kind of let the news get away from me.  just catching up tonight on a few things.

Alot of stories on the vote for brits to leave i say good for them !!!


it seems (at least the media reports i read anyhow) that it was a "young vs old"......thing.


i noted how the stores went on and on about the young it ruined their future, how it will change

their person said "he has friends in poland and a few other counties", and they will never see each

other question is........why ???


they are leaving the eu.......not the planet


then there was this other "kid".....he was worried about his college....."the eu funds 16% of the college"........


ok........just where does the eu get the money to do this with ????


wonder what the kid is studying..........political science ???


they can now control their own country....rather than have the EU say yea and nay.


oh......i have to say something about trump..........i was basicly floored when it was released how much money he

had raided to run for president.........only 1.2 million........vs 42 million by someone else.....

it is laughable.......trump is his own worst enemy.....he has put down many groups of people....then fires his campain

advisior..and his family supported him for doing it.......but it remains the same thing....trump just can't get it thru his skull

that he is not the center of the universe, and it's all about him, and is like a child and throws temper tantrums and name


my friends.....imagine him at an international the end of the night, we would be on the brink of war with

5 or 6 countries, following his actions, talk, name calling and slurs.


i blame both parties.......why can't the find somone that will apeal to everyone and is in the middle of the road on many things ??


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