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Senior Advisor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

Funny how the bears all of a sudden changed their minds 6 weeks ago.......yet their post don't reflect that.......

As of a week ago vr was still preaching a 14B crop......now why would someone preach that and be long.......

Who's full of hot air...hmmmm
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Senior Advisor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

For what its worth MT, logical people do change their minds. Making  sales 6 weeks ago was more logical than today because the uncertainty is more acute today than it was 6 weeks ago.

 

6 weeks ago we were assuming that the drought would likely be over by now. Add another six weeks to the dry spell and we are less certain that the rains will resume soon enough. Most of us would be sellers if we were comnfident of getting a crop. You were exhibiting confidence of a crop failure 6 weeks ago. You must farm in the desert.

 

Our crop still look good and would recover nicely given decent rains from here on out. However every calender tick makes that less likely. I guess if we weren't optimists we wouldn't even farm.

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Senior Advisor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

Making sales on something you don't have is called naked short........yet we term it risk management......then stare down the barrel of a drought.....and keep doing it......

14.8 was never possible.......14 was never possible.....13 was but the drought has now taken it below that........12 is in jeopardy........

Sorry, but the bearish world is going to end we are going to fill the streets mentality got some people......
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Veteran Contributor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

Out here on the northern fringe we are thinking above average crop. There will be a time to go short again. I will be sure to do it before your call. I hope buck chips in with his advice. Made me money last August
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Veteran Advisor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

Hey A hole number one. How do you hedge your hay needs? HHHHMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.......... And lets see the guy who six weeks ago had an awesome corn crop growing that would have filed his needs and now is trying to figure out how to pay back an operating loan and buy corn? Why should that guy have hedged? Just cause it might have happened?

 

Most years things are normal.  SO he should have listen to the perma bulls chit just so he "might" not get burned?  

Lets see how would that conversation with the banker have gone..............

 

Livestock guy " Mister banker I know our crops look real good but if we have a drought and shoot the moon I need to hedge all my needs Because Mizzou Tiger says it stands to happen"

 

Who the Heck is Mizou Tiger? Asks the banker

 

Oh hes the guy who knows what the mkt. is gonna do for the next year no matter what. Says the livestock guy.

 

Oh BTW mister Banker I will also need to have the line of credit for the margin calls if it goes the other way, and If this does happen I am gonna need to buy some hay to. Yea I know I haven't been current on a lot of things and cash flow has sucked but in 18 months to two years this thing is gonna be awesome that is when I plan to pay you back.

 

Mister banker I have never seen anybody laugh like that before.........I do not remember saying anything funny?

 

No I do not have any equity left I have refinanced it all to you to get thru this thing.

 

So is that a NO?

 

You say just let it ride?

 

OK thank you mister banker and yes I will not bother you again with any hairbrained schemes from guys on the internet.

 

MT not every body is flush with money as you are so hows about thinking a little bit before shooting off your pie hole?

 


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Senior Advisor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

based on that comedy of errors............I hope VR is panhandling for you............

 

seems you are keeping up on your internet bill.............

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Veteran Advisor

Empathy time

Thanks for posting something that needs saying....how the effects of a drought for a livestock producer can be devastating. I grew up where the only products we sold were a few hogs and a small amount of milk and hoped for crops to feed and hay the animals each year.

 

Crop insurance subsidies are pretty unfair to livestock producers.....they encourage all out production I guess, and this helps the supply of corn and soybeans, but really don't extend the "safety net" . If government is going to be involved in grain production, perhaps the grain reserve as envisioned by Bob Bergland was a better plan......only this time with realistic moving prices , a farmer owned supply that is let go when targets are met to ensure that we don't decimate the meat industry.

 

Hopefully by Monday it is raining all over the corn belt and the fear is over.

 

Good luck JR, others feel for you.

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Senior Contributor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

So many have the ability to get their point across without insulting your intelligence, MT, VR and those like them don't. Hindsight marketing doesn't help what we need to do for the future, every time I read someone state that this is what you should have done should be taken out and flogged but that's just me.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Empathy time

If I remember my history correctly, cheap corn has not meant the most profitable times for livestock producers. 

 

More hog guys when out of business with 1.80 corn than anytime in history.  That cheap corn policy fueled the fires for contract hog farms.  You can thank the LDP program for that.

 

And people should not be worried about corn prices raising food prices in the stores, they are way ahead of corn prices already.   News said that drought would raise corn prices and make us pay more for beef in the stores soon,  funny, I thought beef prices had been going down...OH...that must only be to the guy raising them.

 

Shellady, says 9 dollar calls are in, VRbuck still might get his 20 beans...but no way his 3 dollar corn.  Looks like my biggest problem will be if I don't get greedy enough Smiley Happy  Smiley Happy  Smiley Happy

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Senior Advisor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

I don't get it.....that's exactly what many did two months ago......told em to get their needs covered......that's not hindsight marketing......

Geesh.....

So here's your chance since he didn't listen the first time.......help him out.....should he wait for a bigger pullback......buy some weakness this AM......sell the livestock and try to make it work with grain.....get a job.....

What's your thoughts.......

Not so easy is it......

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