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Senior Contributor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

Serious a 152 Vr. How do you figure that with last weeks ratings cause I am down to 130?
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Senior Contributor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

I have made more money waiting for the market to come to me than trying to chase it until you are oversold.
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Esteemed Advisor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

farmerJ...I would agree that 152 is a pipe dream now. How much below 140 though is very fair to debate. There is alot of good corn out west from what I hear. There is a lot of zero in IN/Mi/OH/IL. So, it is a fair debate. Personally I have no clue and don't really care. This has happened before, many times. The history is available from many sources. Most will ignore it.

 

Vince you need to drop the harvested acreage number by at least a million, maybe two, it is being chopped as we speak.

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Senior Advisor

time........

are you getting bullish or what..........you said you lifted hedges and it would soon be TIME to rehedge..........

 

so whats your targets..........or because its burnt up you dont have much interest or need to dip your toes in the water given there is no physical to hedge against and it would be all margin money............

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: time........

People that care already know what I think. :-)

 

It is clearly a very RISK filled TIME to get bullish. Everyone knows about the drought, on all the news channels, fox business, etc. Our socialist in charge will have to do something in the name of food security, etc. etc. No, rather the TIME draws very near to get nuetral or even defensive. Not yet, but soon. (Since I put most of my faith in weekly charts, soon is not tomorrow btw).

 

I've said over and over that corn "should" not trade above $8. Also have said for a few years now that beans should trade at $18, we are getting close. Targets are alot like religion, everyone has their own.

 

Farmers should not be buying commodities now. Rather, they should be spending a lot of TIME planning how they are going to react to the next 60 days in the markets. The life of contract highs for all of the 2013 and 2014 contracts will be printed in this time window. Almost no one will take advantage. Write a plan down and implement it has been my approach for 25 years now. (Any good plan allows for an occasionally unexpected drought btw.)

 

At mass today, I prayed for humility and for rain for our neighbors. Very few of them are as well protected from this event as we are. They deserve the help more than we do. There aren't any poor farmers left. Everyone in our area does a good job and deserves to prosper is my view (I'll give them a pass on continuing with degradation tillage at this point.)

 

Hope you catch a shower MT.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: time........

There is always physical to hedge in our industry. If not this year, then next. We exceed our financial targets year and year out, depite of what happens with yield (although this year is looking pretty poor yield wise I must say). If you couple insurance with a low-cost production model, non-crop income diversity, and reasoned risk management, it is not that tough to prosper in this industry. This is why I say, as farmers, the LAST thing any of us should be doing right now is buying grain as an investment.

 

Again, this is just our approach and does not make it the correct approach for anyone else.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: time........

Just so that I can reduce my credibility with you, this move started with the end of the solar/lunar eclipse cycle in early June. (June 4th to be exact). Everything starts from there, just like the last leg higher in beans started with the end of the eclipse cycle last December.

These are very special times. The Mayan's had that part right thousands of years ago. Not many Mayan references on this site, but I just pulled one off. :-)

 

 

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Advisor

Re: I think I saw VRBuck panhandling for change today..........nt

152 was as of last week the crop rating monday will probably lower it more.  seems like only a few people me included knew beans where the rocket ship to watch.  For someone to call be nuts and a perma bear it is really funny when I tell them beans are the most bullish I have ever seen.  20 dollar call in march and april and still fighting me, (Ok it could go to 18.50 and be close enough).

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Senior Advisor

Re: time........

so is D21 the top or bottom of the CLIFF...........

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: time........

The solstice in Dec is just like any other solstice in my view. Of course, the Mayan's thought it ended a cycle and they would then start on another higher plane of consciousness. Nothing in their work suggested the end of the world, rather it would mark the beginning of a new and better world.

 

Scientifically, I understand that our galaxy travels through the center of the eliptical plane during the decade kind of centered over the 12/21 window but these things are measured in years and decades not days. So, if the earth's magnetic field inverts (like it has done many times in the past) I will not be surprised. No one knows the TIME of many things that are to happen, Christ called us to always be prepared. Good Advice.

 

It is easy to argue that the western democratic civilization (and US influence)  is peaking but that is just a conincidence probably.

 

Well...I must sign off for at least for the rest of this week. There are far too many really important things going on. Mental distraction is never a good thing and this site is certainly a distraction. Good Luck to everyone. The real volatility will now begin I think.

 

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