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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

I think it is time......

to lower my corn yield a bit........for those that remember, I have been at 156 since early spring........I have been at 91M acres pre flood, so if you go by adjusted swag we should be around 89.5M planted and 82.34M harvested.......that would have been a 12.845B crop............

 

July set or nearly set all kinds of records for heat, matching or coming close to years of 1934, 1980, and 1988...........that can not just happen with out deleterious effects on crops, even with new germplasm and such.............

 

not ready to dip below last year's yield just yet on corn............although its tempting given what I have seen and heard............

 

so 153.5 on 82.34M harvested is were I will land for now.........12.639B.........unfortunately this year's acres and yield is going to be hard to gauge so it will be all about the total number of bushels............

 

my guess is if the actual number comes in anywhere close to this there will be a cut in demand of say 400M.........that will take carryout into the high 600M range which could be viewed as neutral to even bearish as the spin will be we just came through a horrible drought and still kept carryout above the magic number............

 

it will physically take running out of corn to zero things out and truly know were things are...........just keep in mind.......I have kicked this idea out to many over the last 6 months..........we are not keeping up with trendline yields..........if you are smart you know this years crop will come in below it AGAIN..........I posted those charts a week or so ago............I am not saying a blow-out year won't hit or take out trendline, but the averages are pooling below it.............and DEMAND, while wavering at times, is going to continue to increase............I understand the ethanol argument, but strip out ethanol for a minute and look at the last 50 years, demand has increased, ethanol just took us right to capacity................and frankly, whats wrong with that, we still produce nearly double what we consume in this country, doubt we will go hunger, so if we can make some fuel and ship some product.........and make some extra change without being the welfare industry..........WHY NOT.......

 

still keeping soya at 41 with 75M planted and 73.5M harvested for a 3.014B crop...........

 

EDIT:  the updated weather maps from yesterday showed continued dome next 14 days........this weighed into the decision and if this dome stays in place thru August we will likely see things slip to or below last year.........again, pay attention to wheat country, no break in drought is even more pressure...........

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7 Replies
dafeeder
Veteran Contributor

Re: I think it is time......

Problem?  What Problem?  The Corn market doesn't believe the USDA report either.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: I think it is time......

MT, I think the boys in Chicago heard that you lowered your yield.

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stupid
Contributor

Re: I think it is time......

Got a bunch of yield guesses from scouts today. They reported very shallow kernals, lots of pollination problems and some fields that didnt pollinate at all.  Yield guesses 20-25% lower than last year.

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Rich in Mo
Contributor

Re: I think it is time......

MT, ...."if this dome continues through August"..........if it does, your estimates will be way too high.........thanks for posting.

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DKIL
Frequent Contributor

Re: I think it is time......

MT, don't you think yields are leveling out is that so many more corn acres are being added outside the corn belt.  These have to weigh on the average.  I feel that in N. Ill over the last 5-10 years we are still seeing a increase in farm trendline or potential.

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jonnybegood
Contributor

Re: I think it is time......

There is little doubt that yeilds have been leveling off the past few years. Several reasons have converged in to suppress yields.

 

1) The rate of increase in yields due to bio tec seeds is decreasing. BT CRW protection gave large gains in yields. Now this is fully applied across the corn belt those gains have been realized and are now part of the baseline yield.

 

2) Increased acreage comes from increasingly poor acreage. All the land in the I states growing something. New acres will top out at 140 bpa not 240.

 

3) Weather variability across the major growing regions has become more variable. No I don't want to argue global warming. I think we are in a cycle of variable. Weather, and it is taking a toll.

 

    Before it's all said and done I believe we will be south of 150 bpa. May not get the truth for a few months yet. Can't kick the can down for ever.

 

 

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turdypointbuck
Frequent Contributor

Re: I think it is time......

Its looking worse every day I think. I know there wont be much corn from southren missouri, and even less south of here. I know we are not big corn acres, but when we have very low yields and the northern states have an "average" corn yeild year( just what I have been hearing) its got to bring down the average for the year. Its getting bad here real quick , with no signs of it getting better.

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