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NDf
Senior Contributor

Re: I thpought this deserved it's own thread.

Jr I think you better rethink your corn carryout number. The corn is'nt there look at the usage from the stock report and the inventory reported thats on hand the corn was used. When you're looking at the extra feed in the system that comes from ddg's it isn't all used in this couutry alot of it is exported so you can't add it all back. As far as rationing in the animal sector IMO it has not happen yet I look at the slaughter weights and so far they are above normal for both cattle and hogs if they were rationing the weights would be lower than normal. Also egg sets were higher than last year in the latest report.

 

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: I thpought this deserved it's own thread.

NDF I didn't put it into one category I just added it on to the total bushels for the year. Yes some is exported and some is fed. All I was saying is that it must be accounted for and it hasn't been. And of course it didn't show up in the stocks number becasue they do not adjust for it.

I also was asserting that going forward livestock will be rationing as the prices consumers can pay will be adversly affected by the weakening dollar.  And while beef weights are higher total head are lower.

I reported a week or two ago about a feed mill near me that was supposed to be getting low on corn inventory. When I talked to the mamager I was told a different story. He doesn't see us getting that low on supply. He says it is no where near 96. 

BTW what does rationing look like?  How many medium sized and small livestock farmers have to go bust to get this thing rationed?  You guys who scream rationing need to put some of your neighbors faces on that statemnet becasue they are the ones who will be going out. The bigs in the business will just declare bankruptcy and reorg and go on bigger and better. But the small guy will be done. Hope you guys bid lots for his land cause that will be his only reward in the boom times.

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: I thpought this deserved it's own thread.

Respectfully, I still disagree. The numbers indicate we are using corn FASTER than last year and rationing is not occurring.. Whether DDG's come out the back end is immaterial. Users are buying corn. A user has to buy corn for DDG's to come out the back end. If they have trouble moving DDG's then the price for them may drop and you can take advantage of it and ethanol producers margins may suffer.  The price of gold and other commodities is not going to directly affect this situation in a primary way.  As I've pointed out, the grain conditions support corn prices and correlate with '96, though that example probably indicates current corn prices are too low.

 

Fiscal policy is important in the long run, but under slow economy conditions I don't think it is a factor in marketing right now. Maybe in the future it will be. But a lot of water has to pass under the bridge for us to know how it will be dealt with.

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NDf
Senior Contributor

Re: I thpought this deserved it's own thread.

Jr I guess I"m confused why wouldn't half  the amount of extra corn being replaced by dgg's be showing up at the half way point of the year as  a decrease in corn usage? Since this isn't the first year ddg's have been fed why wasn't the carryout adjusted way up in previopus years to adjust for theey're replacement for corn. As far as the little guy going broke in the livestock industry other than dairy which I know nothing about with the prices they are getting for they're product and some input price risk management they are far from going bankrupt. Most of the small guys like me ( I have cattle} feed our own feed and are diversified with grain production which takes the sting out of high grain prices. The big guys aren't going to go broke either with the ability to hedge a profit using  the back months of the livestock and corn futures markets.

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pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: I thpought this deserved it's own thread.

us imports gas and fuel oil BUG time.

we are no where clsoe to being a net exporter.

 

good thing we use our capital on better things others want to refine GREAT!!!

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