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I wish I could link this chart

but can't as it is proprietary and I'd risk getting kicked out.


But in a nutshell, net large spec futures longs, all futures, at +1.6M contracts vs. 1.2M at the 2008 peak where the CRB was at 450.


Each of the subsequent peaks- '11 and '13 were also higher net long, lower price peak.


CRB now back to close to 200.


Takeaway is this is an echo bounce but not anywhere near the real deal- which only happens every few decades.


Doesn't mean that individual bull markets won't occur if they have the fundamentals but the general tide remains deflationary.

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Disaggregated futures plus options.


As of Tuesday, corn shucked off 50K spec long, still at 150K. Beans only 5, still a very large 195K.


As far as the larger thesis that I was discussing above, big chunks of that total net long are gold, crude, beans, sugar.


Gold is carrying an historic net long but is only a bit above 1300 vs. the 1900 high in 2011. Financial turmoil will continue to support if but long probably acts as a significant cap.


Crude has gone from a big net short at the start of the year to very long, but did pare back some last week. Same applies.


This isn't a timing device but tends to strongly suggest that we're not entering a new secular bull market in commodities. But individual commodities can certainly run with their momentum.


Net inflows into commodity funds have been noted for the first time in quite a while.

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