I wouldn't know how to bet this

[sdholloway56]

but Russia's shambolic "invasion" looks like it will be a spent force by the end of the month.

Of course know way of knowing how much death and destruction they dish out in the meantime- a lot I'd imagine.

And not sure how much a '22 Ukrainian crop would be able to recover at that point.

And I don't even know what the worst case wheat price is, and whether we've reached it yet.

Worst case, I guess, is nuclear war but there's not much to do in that regard- once again it is Putin's call. But the notion that a country that has committed 80% of its military to the Ukraine and is losing is not going to pivot and wage conventional war on anybody.

Still, the worst case seems far less likely at this moment than the alarmists would claim.

[BA Deere]

That attacked nuclear plant in Ukraine is defcon one, I`m not going to use the cliche of "scorched earth" but that would be a description of the potential of what could happen.  One year from now, grain prices might not be in our top 100 concerns.

[sdholloway56]

That would be suicide for the Putin dictatorship.

[BA Deere]

What scenario on the table isn`t a Putin suicide pact?

[rsbs]

I wish that nutz would have put up his post predicting a short war a week ago so that I could have planned for this being a much bigger deal than I suspected at the time. I wish I had the grain sales back that I made the last seven days....this market appears to have legs.

One thing about nutz, the guy has almost a 100 percent record of being wrong....no one I know is as consistent in results as he is.

[BA Deere]

Yeah Red, I have seller`s remorse too, but a guy could`ve always had sold more earlier, we have to be thankful for the free agent bushels we do have.  High fuel prices and dropping equity markets could take away that discretionary cash & wealth effect that previously had 45 minute waits at the steakhouses.   I ordered a patty melt at a restaurant and the burger was a little different and the way it looked to me, they mix eggs with their burgers to cheapen them up.  If that`s all they do, that`s fine, but restaurants are pulling out all the tricks to stay in business.

[rsbs]

BA, I grew up with a "lot less butter on the bread" than most, so I know all about the egg, saltine crackers, and hamburger "mystery meat" trick. Might have been a frugal upbringing, but those were the good old days, just like today's events will be in 20 years.

Life is always good if you have the right attitude.

[WCMO]

I missed whatever the official nutz war timing prognostications might have been.  Still, had already decided to finish up 2021 grain sales, it was profitable.  Have a risk-based target for some 2022 cash contracts, but haven't hit them yet, not sure if targets should be raised or lowered.  Doesn't sound like any spring breaks in fertilizer pricing, and fuel still going higher.  If Putin backs down, will be some risk taken out of grain markets.  If Putin doesn't back down, and continues to push harder, and/or reacts wholesale war to more of a push from US, or really anyone, can't help but think more risk-on pricing for grains, along with considerably more negative impact in short term on stock markets.  Saw the stories about Ukraine wheat not getting planted, and China reports not good there.  Plus, the drought impact in SA.  Last time looked at US drought map, it wasn't looking so good either -- had some "rains" past few days here, but overall total probably barely 1/10th, if that.  

PS -- heading up to central Iowa this afternoon, weather map showed snow, hope the roads are okay up there.

[BA Deere]

One has to ask themselves, what would happen if they opened up CRP acres on a limited "war emergency) basis.  And with wheat & bread (corn`s in everything too) if the "food vs fuel" debate got them to shutdown E plants.  There`s still time before spring planting, 2 months a lot of things can happen.  

If a stray  Rooskie missile hits a US ship, then we have boots on the ground, many domestic emergency procedures could take place...$10 loaf bread and $8 gas, changes consumer priorities over Pheasant nesting and "clean air". 

[k-289]

Oat &  corn  bread  will  be  the  new  norm   - and  maybe  a  new  bracket  for  cbot ,  LOAVES  ,  and  then  take  expiration   contract  deliveries  -  -  -