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Advisor

Re: IT IS TIME

I think the reigning neoliberal economic philosophies that brought on LDPs are still in play- low prices cure low prices. And in a sense they did' From '95-05- a couple of bad crops and the rise of China had chewed world stocks down quite a bit. But it took 10 years.

 

So I don't expect a rapid demise of LDP Lite.

 

A US setaside would have the least impact in wheat as the US only produces a small portion of the world crop in comparison to feed grains or oilseeds.

 

Probably just be a mild subsidy to Putin and those darn Canucks and Aussies.

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Advisor

Re: IT IS TIME

I would in fact be in favor a paid long term retirement of a pretty good chunk of land but primarily along stream and ditch boundaries and other high impact areas. And paying to plant and maintain them as pollinator and other biodiversity habitats.

 

Actually ought to be able to rekindle the old conservation coalition to get that done- sportsmen's groups, environmentalists along with farmers.

 

A funny thing happened with the recent Farm Bill. The liberals were put on the defensive defending food stamps and were too busy to give much support to environmental matters and the sportsman's groups were locked up in a conservation clubhouse somewhere to keep Obama from getting their guns.

 

And we were still chasing Energy Independence, even though by then it was clear to anyone paying attention that the larger portion of that had already failed spectacularly.

 

The policy consensus is full of slow learners.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Link to ethanol article

Ray  -  The  article   forgot  some  $$$$  expenditures  -  Middle  East  War   7   Trillion  ---

 

 Washington   Examiner  does  bring  up  some  interesting  views --- 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Link to ethanol article

And interesting links too. I kept clicking and before I knew it I has voting on who was the most beautiful female athlete at the olympics. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: IT IS TIME

Talk about slow learners....

 

Set.a side's, and grain reserves have never done anything for anybody but retired people and especially bankers.

 

Ray J, I have a flexfueler that probably gets more e10 than anything else, many times no choice.

 

I also will drink a soda made with corn sweetener.

 

I also have no problem exporting either one and generating revenue from off shore.

 

It just seems like no one wants to exert any effort to keep the E thing and corn sweetener gyroscope thing spinning.

 

Just how many and how big of piles of this stuff do we want?

 

India, west?

 

 

 

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Advisor

Re: IT IS TIME

A bit of historical context- when the ethanol legislation was passed oil was at $100 on its way to $150.

 

Now it is under $50, probably going lower and the big problem isn't gas prices its a $T or so in bad energy loans.

 

Farmers who were well positioned before the government sponsored boom reaped a windfall and some will keep it. But it isn't likely to come back anytime soon.

 

Ethanol was sort of like the failed war in Iraq- an effort with a single objective is a lot more likely to succeed than something that doesn't know what it is. Was it environmental, energy independence, farm/support rural development?

 

At this point only the farm support element is hanging tough. The coalition of the willing that came together on account of the lucky confluence of the MTBE failure and a soaring oil price isn't likely to come again soon.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: IT IS TIME

Many are going to get an education if these prices are the new norm.  Not a good one either.  And it won't just be farmers.  Still seems wrong to me that a big food supply is a bad thing.

 

I do know one thing, every time the government steps in the 'help' in distress times, we lose more and more farmers, and the trend accelerates to larger farms.  Be careful what you wish for.

 

Not sure what spooked the trade today.  The stampede south continues. 

 

We just need to hire the big pharma execs to run our corn and soybean and wheat boards.  Why doesn't some of the millions they take in from check off dollars go to teaching with ads to the public, and not in a magazine to farmers?

 

I am old enough to have seen this game plenty of times, but it still gets old.  But I don't have to lose any sleep over it like the guys with debt....been there done that, no fun. 

 

All that said, sure seems strange the government didn't accept so many of the CRP bids this spring.

 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: IT IS TIME

Many areas have lost a generation of farmers to set a side's,. I've got a neighbor that put the farm next to me in. $300ish a year, every bit goes to the banker, 

 

Best part of the whole deal is it is 50% above going rent, and I now have more varmit pressure.

 

There is absolutely no profit in us using our own money and credit to pay ourselves to waste our assets. How many times will the same unsuccessful thing be,tried.

 

Yea I know "it'll work THIS time"....just plain asinine.

 

Just a banker thing....

 

Banker that is profiting on our debt as a country.

 

Banker that made all those bad loans to the under water growers and is now profiting from the higher "at risk" rates he is charging and gonna get all the principal back with compound interest.

 

Thinking like that is like drinking a Jim Jones kool aid, it'll just financially kill you.

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Advisor

Re: IT IS TIME

BTW, I don't think that retiring maybe 5-10 million acres for an environmental reserve is going to change prices a great deal- but we don't need the acres and there are externalized costs associated with hanging the last 3 rows of the 24 row over the ditchbank to make sure you get all the $7 corn you can. And once commenced, that continues at $3 unless the government intervenes.

 

I always said the the charter school/LDP lite farm bill would cost a lot more than it was sold as and that looks to be happening. But it is enough of a safety net to avoid a systemic crisis, which is all the country really needs to do.

 

BTW, it is a year to year thing but there were good selling opportunities this year and if this board is any indication many producers preferred complaining to taking any action in their own defense.

 

I get kinda tired of lectures about personal responsibility from some of those big daddies.

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Honored Advisor

Re: IT IS TIME

Socialism works so much better, just let some gov't liberal arts educated mush head dictate what, where, and how much we do.

 

"It'll work this time"

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