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Honored Advisor

Ice Age Farmer on coming Soybean shortage

Don`t believe I`d be giving away corn or beans in storage, not saying prices are going to the moon, but the risk intermediate term appears selling too cheap.

https://www.iceagefarmer.com/2020/12/12/2021-empty-shelves-shortages-in-sight-soybeans-explained/   

As Brazil’s drought continues, the USDA has further marked down soybean stocks, and China continues to buy everything in sight. Love or hate them, soybeans permeate our food supply, and a shortage of them, coupled with canned & frozen food shortages “due to COVID” sets the stage for empty shelves — just what the UN, WEF & Rockefeller ilk want to make the case for a Great Reset of Food, and leverage to force people to acquiesce to their agenda. Christian breaks down why soybeans may be the keystone that triggers an avalanche of food shortages we’ve been promised.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-GmhyPvS8o&feature=emb_title

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Honored Advisor

Re: Ice Age Farmer on coming Soybean shortage

Shock jock

Brazilian production will still be about twice what it was a dozen years ago even with a drier growing season.             

 

A guy named Rogers said we would all have a Lamborghini for our Sunday go to meeting car by now. Got yours yet? 

  Don't bet the farm...

Re: Ice Age Farmer on coming Soybean shortage

I'd still say the Trump card is to have a good plan, and stick to it (while allowing for modification if things are dramatically different than anticipated).

My plan is always to ladder in sales. We had a good harvest this year - couldn't fit all the corn in the bin, so I sold some out of the field for $3.91. I was happy with that for out of the field stuff, but wanted more for what I binned. I looked at my costs and profit levels, and decided to start selling when prices reached $4.25, and selling 4 truckloads each time it went up another 25 cents. But if it went up 25 cents, and then went back down 25 cents, I'd sell another 4 loads. But I won't sell any below $4,25 UNLESS I don't have it all sold by the end of May - then I'd refigure. So far I only sold once - 4 loads at $4.26 for July delivery. But I'm sure there will be a post-harvest bonce or a weather scare or competition for acres somewhere along the line that will let me sell more. 

But maybe don't listen to me because I sold all my beans between $9,27 and $9.87...

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Honored Advisor

Re: Ice Age Farmer on coming Soybean shortage

It’s a decent strategy.   It really is knowing your weaknesses and planning past them.  And sometimes the wheels just need greased because once it’s in storage it doesn’t find a home without effort. 

Finally — time passes quicker when expected because most of us don’t plan the marketing as well as the production.  

Senior Advisor

Re: Ice Age Farmer on coming Soybean shortage

1988  - 2012 ,  and approaching of 2021 - maybe - with the prior 2 , the grind of feed ( availability) never stopped -  -  - 

Honored Advisor

Re: Ice Age Farmer on coming Soybean shortage

Farmers in the past few decades have had the luxury of (for the most part) being able to get "beared" up and crop revenue assurance insurance bailing them out to cover contracted bushels if they can`t deliver.  But insurance washes their hands of you if prices rise above a couple bucks of the price guarantee.   That $4 corn that you prudently lock in 100% of your APH on could look really ugly come October if corn is $8 and your yield is sub APH.

When corn is in a multi-year sub $4 trading range, there`s little concern that you won`t be able to deliver the contract and "worst case" there`s always a 2+billion bushel carryover hanging on the market.  

I don`t know what 2021 will bring, perhaps acres will be there at expense of hay ground and cotton and the gas gauge will never get below 1.7 billion bushel carry and everyone`s yield monitor won`t dip below 250 and China will cancel  shipments and good yields around the globe. Maybe January prices will be the top of the market? 

This demand driven rally is a different animal though, perhaps "crackpots" will be right this time?  A demand rally and if the ducks don`t line up in production has a higher risk in the new year.   I guess if I was to commit unplanted bushels of Z21 corn and beans, I`d have a put in place, just in case 2021 is the year dogs and cats start shacking up.

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