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Veteran Advisor

If 100% of China's Pigs Die....who will the U.S. sell all its soybeans to?

Fifty percent of China's breeding sows are reported as being dead as a doornail merely 1 year after China first formally announced seeing African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) infections in their pig herds.

China was estimated to have had between 440 million and 700 million live pigs prior to ASF (or Pig Ebola as it is also being called).  

If their pigs continue to die at this rapid pace, without a viable vaccine being developed, China might not have any pigs left in another 12-24 months.  China is already expecting a 70% surge in pork prices in the next few months, with prices expected to go even higher after that.  

So who will American farmers sell all their soybeans to? 

Not a lot of market options out there.

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7 Replies
Veteran Advisor

SAVED by the Bell

Phibro has announced a new vaccine for ASF. 

Www. Porkbusiness. Com



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Veteran Advisor

Re: SAVED by the Bell

That's great news!!!

[I can only find where Phibro applied for a patent to develop a novel vaccine-creation approach and that it "hopes to create a specific epitope-based vaccine rather than following the more conventional path of an attenuated live vaccine..."* but cannot see where they are currently live-testing a working vaccine.  Do you happen to have any links?  Thanks!]



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Re: If 100% of China's Pigs Die....who will the U.S. sell all its soybeans to?

Hmm... exports to Argentina went up 651,000% China fell 71% . I wonder what the Argentinians are doing with our beans. It’s been along time since I laughed that hard at a statistic. And then I just plain got pissed. Somebody’s making a heck of a lot of money off us poor farmers. Maybe the USA farmers should go on strike like the Argentina farmers do. Do you think these pissants that control these markets would finally get scared. I doubt it, there to wrapped up making themselves more money. GREED. Sorry for the rant, like I said that stat made me mad . Other than that it’s been a pretty good day 

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Senior Advisor

Re: It's a one-off, Argentina had a short crop last year.

It's only a one-off,  Argentina had a really short crop last year but they have a large soybean crush business that needed beans.  This year's crop is more normal so don't expect to sell much to them this year.

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Veteran Advisor


Try this,  https://www. porkbusiness. com/article/phibro-announces-african- swine-fever-vaccine-progress


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Honored Advisor

Re: Phibro

The original entry here answers most of the question.    

1 Statistics is not an area that readers spend time on...........US exports to china lowered by 71%   yet US exports to its top ten buyers only lowered by 25%  ----- answers the question... 

Argentina and Brazil are joined at the hip

lots of simple stuff in the stats answer the question.  

2  We research the vaccine deeply but accept the premace presented without question???????


3 The original question...... If all the pigs in china die......  proof we don't do research....... I been looking for proof of mass death of hogs in china for months now........ its not there and think what a good bargaining tool those images would be.  

4.   The plague didn't wipe out human population in europe..... it only reduced it.....  How foolish is it to think a virus is going to kill all of a population that large............ we watch way too much hollywood.

5.  Give the statistics some thought...... What does it take for Argentina to buy soy from the US??  When Brazil is next door?   ----- Just one of the statistics on that graph that say " the US is the only world supply for soybeans"  (I intentionally left out the word "reliable") 

Honored Advisor

Step back away from the created assumptions

They are two totally different issues      soybean exports (supply)   vs    the "story" of ASF death losses.

But where they are connected is that if China did buy from the US, (even through its partner Vietnam)  it would kill the ASF story.  Since China owns both issues they have a problem when Argentina needs soybeans........... or anyone else.

The US is in a great position because the 2019 crops in the US are going to put a lot of pressure on this trade negotiation.

The world is still living on less than a 2.5 months supply of corn and beans (most generous data I find)



I know we are all feeling a crushed by this economically, but be honest,  is $2 lower soybeans killing our bottom line or the $2 technology fees(property taxes, etc etc etc) we are paying that we didn't used to.  (If we had avoided the tech fees maybe our kids would know how to set a disc or cultivator).


Have you noticed how far you have to look through a google search to find usda"s numbers.......... or anything else worth quoting.