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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 90
Registered: ‎05-18-2010
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If I was China....

don't you think while the governent is shut down....( the USDA and the marketing services anyway )  if i needed soybeans, or meal, or corn i would be buying every day.... small amounts from difffering sources so no one really notices that they have sold so much grain thus running under the radar and getting what i need cheaper than having headlines announcing that i bought  that many tons...

 

what's the odds that that is what is happening while everyone is watching the Washington Circus?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,968
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: If I was China....

I think they might quietly doing just that.  Wasn`t there something about the government buying for their "reserve" without the charged tariff?  Well, in a communist system 6 of one, half dozen of another.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 90
Registered: ‎05-18-2010
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Re: If I was China....

Well I got to thinking the timing is almost perfect almost like they had a hand in setting this up for them to buy all they need under the radar...... I'm no so sure we shouldn't investigate the possiblity of some colussion here if the indeed buy tons of commodities

 

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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 744
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: If I was China....

Collusion between/among whom???   BTW if USDA does their job, it will eventually come to light. And then look out!!

Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,968
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: If I was China....

And look at the red herring they threw out on Syngenta corn to get the corn price cheaper and then they end up owning the company. 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 2,903
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: If I was China....

Why would China want to buy "under the radar" now?   Seems to me that they need to broadcast it loud and clear. They need to buy more from the U.S. to end this tariff stuff and they need everyone to know it. 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,559
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: If I was China....

How does all this factor into the marketing strategy you use for the corn in the bin and the corn you intend to plant next year?  Curious to know if this kind of news informs how you put together your marketing plan.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 2,903
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: If I was China....

[ Edited ]

If, and I say if China imports more soybeans from the U.S., the price of soybeans goes up.   Corn will follow.   Just how much confidence do you or I have in this actually happening?   

This will have a bearing on how I market my corn. There is lots of time to market corn......especially the 2019 crop.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 90
Registered: ‎05-18-2010

Re: If I was China....

The plan is the same right now... Figure costs and break evens for each crop...numbers used are average yields the last 5 yrs ..costs are from suppliers... Numbers if close are weighed against market outlooks from all sources....  This year picking the amount of up or down in each market .reminds me of the ARC/PLC delima a few years ago.....wish in one hand .xxxx in the other

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,920
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: If I was China....

Most involved say prices continue down and expenses go up --- including usda.  So much that trade with china may not make any difference. 

 

And when pressed most will say "that's the farmers problem......

It is up to the farmer to make them share the problem......Its not the land owners (or seed company, or coop etc etc etc) responsibility to make your cash flow work....... as they all are quick to say as they leave the boat they took profits from annually.  But ultimately they will be affected.

 

.And at least for today usda is feeling the problem.