If there's a pocket of concern

[hardnox]

Forecast looks like the slow moving ECB will make pretty good progress the next ten days. Despite local problems that will probably cease to be an issue to the market soon. Through the 8-14 it doesn't look to be rainless, just rain a lot less. Somebody is going to be unlucky but most look to get it planted OK.

The only significant production area that looks wetter and has a lot of rain in the 5 Day QPF is W IA and E NE.

Anybody there have any comments?

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

http://www.qtweather.com/showImage.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FSoilmst_Monito...

[hardnox]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

In ECB. W IA rains shift slightly south.

[BA Deere]

I wonder if the wet affected area is any more or less than a problem area in a normal year.  I know when this area has a weather fight, I have backyarditis and think there`s no way we raise a big crop, but it seems it works out and like the 2013 spring from hell, you could`ve made a 75 mile circle with Forest City in the middle and everything outside that circle was fabulous...Jackson Minnesota west to the Badlands that year was a garden spot.  And Hoosiers I talked to couldn`t believe how good they had it. 

[cityslicker]

Here in West Ia Atlantic to be exact, we have been plagued now with too much rain. Is much wetter than last year although south of here last year was REALLY bad. We just finished our soybeans and it is one of those years when you just scramble to finish and don"t really care about conditions. I'm spreading beans with a 12 volt endgate seeder on our 4 wheeler trying to get a few to grow in wet spots mainly to control weeds. Hope we get enough to pay for the seed and if the weeds aren't quite as bad that will be the profit Supposed to rain here starting tomorrow and go much of week. That will be bad. We did some desperation tiling even tiling where we had already planted beans.

[hardnox]

Oh, I think it is better than several recent years.

It's going to take more rain than what is showing up in the forecast for there to be a very big area with concern of wholesale shifting or PP.

Most of the long term forecasts I've seen are warm. As far as moisture, some are wet, some think it may get dry by the end of the summer.

It very well may but that's a long way off.

My thinking, which is worth nothing, is that the record world temps are so far resulting in more ocean evaporation and you have to lean to the wetter side.

Could always have an event like last year where the heavy late June rains in the ECB created a selling opportunity. Or not.

I have some loose and fairly cheap put spreads; should we head lower here I'll probably stand waiting to see if something develops and also keep an eye on when I take a small loss on the lower strike put and just stay protected.

If we decide to go higher here, might just make a cash sale and take the small loss on the puts.

[sw363535]

SW is two weeks behind in planting everything....  Meaning the last 1/4 of corn is in the declining potential category..

[westernia80]

There are still some fields of bean stubble on the Missouri River bottom that have not been touched yet.  Lots of corns stalks untouched