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Veteran Advisor

If you can't beat them....join them

Im going to an organic program in the next week
Or so. While not quite ready to sell the sprayer,
I think we at least look at options.
In my case the biggest obstacle (s) first, 3 year
Waiting period, second no close market. Then
The weed issues....while no herbicides, within 150
Miles, we have some Palmer that is just about
Resistant to everything.
Then....what if a number of people jump in
(3 year waiting window stopping many)
There goes the price, which offsets the lower
Production.
This is supposed to be the creme da la creme meeting,
So if you have some questions, or the like, post
Them...and I'm not afraid to raise my hand and
Ask questions.

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23 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: If you can't beat them....join them

Please let us know how that works out for you.  Smiley Happy

 

 

I thought you were going to say you switched to the other side of the aisle.    Smiley Wink

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: If you can't beat them....join them

Almost all organic buyers have a payment to help cover the 3 year transition.

Many use non-gmo hay sold to a local dairy etc in this part of the world.

Just need to get the contract with the buyer in advance and then they help

with the transition.

 

Of course, always risk, they could go broke like everyone else.

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: If you can't beat them....join them

Keep us posted.  I'm always scared that a market could be easily over loaded and prices go bad, but there's no doubt it seems to work for some people.

 

It would seem to me that marketing would be quite different.  Maybe you could hedge on the commodity side but I'm not sure that works.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: If you can't beat them....join them

Question can you get revenue protection insurance on the first three years of organic crops based on past crop yields? It would seem to me that the insurance check on 85% of past yields plus the savings on non GMO seed, no chemicals, and no commercial fertilizer would more than off set some truly awful yields. it looks to me like 20 bushel beans and 50 bushel corn just might pay.

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Honored Advisor

Re: If you can't beat them....join them

I realize I am in a poor working class neighborhood compared to the rich teachers in topeka, but I watch the organic Isles closely.

 

We are already overloading this market because that inventory just doesn't move...... ends up on the bargain shelves and doesn't move there either.

Last week in snow the eggs, milk, and flour etc etc sold out and we went for 2 days without those things in the Kansas owned grocery.

But those three $5 /dozen cartons of "popular high quality eggs sat there till the competition restocked at $2 a dozen.

 

I realize areas with "smart educated ego based" populations probably feeds that upscale market ----- but it has always made me nervous to know that I need The best price in the store to survive in business....(it is only a matter of time)  Like that white wheat carrot that you can never reach.  I been that nervous ever since 2012 every time I need a part from Deere. or look at financials and see how little a farmer has been able to trim his costs from the year before.  Our suppliers are still needing that $6 corn to survive.

 

It is a risky time and tough times IMO....... and all the news is 4 sides trying to win the opportunity to lie about it.

 

I don't like the ads in tech...... but in media there is more truth in the advertisements than the stories, depending on who got to spin the data fed to the writer....... example.... the most recent survey on water use from Kansas State Normal school......Before the answers were submitted .... It automatically assumed the perspective of the politician they will be trying to get their name tied to.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: If you can't beat them....join them

Just for the sake of discussion, here are the market
Quotes from a "private" market source. This is
Jan listing. Most are close to current, but wheat has
Slipped a $1 or more

All organic

Soybeans..food grade. $19.48
Soybeans..feed grade. $18.53

Wheat. $10.87

Corn..food grade..$12.34
Corn..feed grade.. $9.60
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Veteran Advisor

Re: If you can't beat them....join them

SW...in many respects, you are correct, but, there
Is a movement afoot.
Walmart has made company policy they want to
Work more twards organic, so that will bring it
To the mass.
Then there is whole foods (whole paycheck)
That is gaining some traction (but chain is having
Problems) same with trader Joe. Then Aldi is
Pushing organic (unk if that is american or European)
Even one of our regional brands, Best Choice, is
Comming out with products.
But...as you say around here it doesn't move, which
Is true, but we are becoming less the norm all
The time. In metro areas, organic is popular, and
We have to admit, they are our customers, and
The customers are always right (spending their
Own money).
Also some areas sell more organic due to a higher
% mark up vs. standard products...perhaps why
Getting more shelf space.
Am I saying organic is better, no not really, some
Study's show organic could harbor more potentially
Harmful organisiums, and claims of "more nutritious"
Organic vs conventional, has more due to genetics,
Which the heirloom variety are more so, due to
More resistance and better keeping and shipping.

Who's right, who's wrong, I don't really know anymore,
But Corp AG has us on their bicycle, we keep
Pedeling, but get nowhere, and make less and
Less and they make more and more....
We have fallowed the dangling carrot....using
Their traits...their chemicals..just to over
Produce and have low prices
They come out with new products (with higer price to ags) to cure the problems they created, or had a
Hand in (weed resistance)...we are now at the
Point that not far from me, we have a population
Of pigweed that is just about resistant to just
About everything but diesel and fire.
We are "" begging"" for a mirricle from the seed
And chem companies....talk about a sweat spot...
These people will pay just about anything.
Today...just how many times do we run over
A field per year with a sprayer ?
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Veteran Advisor

Re: If you can't beat them....join them

A local chem company was telling me some guys
Are doing 6 to 7 times....and you "have to" do
It and looks and laughs at me when I say they
Are nuts.

So where do I end this...I don't know..

Todo we're not in Kansas anymore ??
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Veteran Advisor

Re: If you can't beat them....join them

Pop...good question...maybe a separate T1 yeild
For organic ?? Then the fallowup....what about
The 3 years while trying to become certified...
Since not using herb or feet ???
They have a session dedicated to crop insurance.
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