If you can't beat them....join them

[elcheapo]

Just for the sake of discussion, thought, and
Research abilities.
Say there would be some macro events that would
Push us to a qusi organic system.
Let's say that weeds have resistance to just
About every herbicide we have...and just to
Make it really compelling, several of our largest
Importers determine, the use of glyphos is
Unsafe, and they don't want it.
Say that this would develop into a situation of
Reduction of 40% of production.
While this would flood the organic, and do away
With any premium...but the question is...what
Would be the new ""commodity"" reset prices ?

Or...would there be much of a change, due to
”"the landscape"". Would we still need to jump
Thru the hoops to be organic to gain a premium.

An interesting thought, how would such
A change change the AG industry ?
Imagine, AG chemical industry would implode.
Seed company, chasing new traits, would
Need to change.
The grain industry...far less grain to handle
So how would the international companies
Survive on 60 percent of the business they
Used to do.


Looked at that, from that view...it makes one
Ponder, why there is such resistance to organic,
And that ""we can't go back to that""

Perhaps we need to ask who can't...the farmers
Or the agriculture industry ?

Just something to ponder

In such a world....what would the SF market
Forum look like ??

[timetippingpt]

A couple of things SW,

a. These guys are really smart and are working really hard. So, they have

all their production spoken for out through 2020 I think he said. 

b. Don't need to be near a metro area in my view, most of his sales

are too rural folks who happen to like Beef with the nutrient

and fat density type that is as healthy as Salmon. We only eat

his stuff at this point. Only eat beef twice a week, so eating

fabulous beef is hardly cost prohibitive. jmo

    - It is actually hard to believe the color and texture of this stuff,

more like Salmon than feedlot beef.

c, Local competition won't exist for at least 5 years, and maybe

another generation (20 years). Why? It is hard work to move cattle

grazing wires every day. It is hard work to make hay for the dairy. It

is hard work to have pattern tiled every field on 50' centers to avoid

cattle compaction in an almost always too wet Indiana. (although

his soils are underlaid by gravel which makes it all possible I suppose).

It is really hard work run a combine through organic beans with some

weeds in them. But his O.M. numbers are skyrocketing so his

yields will gain on salt/chemical/tillage burning N systems over the years.

    - As well, you have to understand, 90% of Indiana dirt is now farmed.

by folks who think grain farming is a full-time job. It never has been.

So, these guys work when it rains, when it snows, when it is dry

and hot to produce a valuable product. In general, grain farmers

are slow to change, just look at the pathetic adoption rate of cover

crops, S application, etc etc etc. So much easier to go do some

fall tillage than fix the real problems.

   - Bottom line, last thing he has to worry about in Indiana is an

oversupply of his product in my opinion.

Organic farmed with merely iron, salt, and genetics will indeed

be unprofitable quickly. Organic farms, managed that way, will

likely be the profitable and prospering farms of the future, even

if they don't grow organic crops. Something to wonder about anyway.

[six_s]

SW

Good points you made that deserve consideration.

Certainly, if everyone does it, the niche market will be flooded, and the profit potential will diminish.

Pretty much what is the case with conventional farming at the moment.

Not every crop in a rotation sequence will be making money.

I grow oats in my rotation ever 3rd year. There is a premium market for this crop if the test weight is good enough for milling (38# or better)

Most years I can achieve this.

Even when things go right, it still is only a break even or small profit crop.. 

When selecting varieties, you may make conscious decisions to pick varieties with marketable traits like test weight, protein, etc, over yield.

However, with small grains in this area, you can usually achieve no weeds making seed for that crop year since the crop is off early.

Once the oats are off, you have a  good opportunity to apply manure and grow cover crops.

This sets the stage for profitable corn the next year and soybeans the following year for me., 

Besides managing paperwork, the timing of operations like cultivating becomes critical.

While conventional farmers are out golfing after spraying is done, you may be out cultivating instead. 

Same conflict with graduation parties, weddings, and kids sporting events.

Certainly not a get rich quick scheme, but can work well for some people.

[elcheapo]

Well the horse and pony show is over...and I have
To say I was somewhat dismayed.
Something come up on two of the presenters.
The first was on certification....which in my
Opinion is critical...but the presenter had
An early morning car wreck so can't hold
It against them. I also thought a speaker on
Insurance, nope.
So 2 hours on soil health, and 1 hour on how to
Run a cultivator !
The market one ok....but was kind of scetchy...
Everything sold on agreement with broker.
I ask if it would be possible to post bids and
Sales...no....that's not how we do business
That kind of made me squirm in my chair.
Clayton....yes they do business with both
Mills, the one nw and east of you, but they
Are secondary supplier...both Mills do direct
Sourcing....so you could maybe haul to
Them direct, but in most cases you need bins.

More later