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Senior Advisor

India embargos wheat exports

Some have confidently announced India was exporting their huge surplus and announced it as a really bearish factor (in fact they have a terrible time trying to export - it's a long story and very Indian). But no mention of the opposite when India decides NOT to export. I've sat on this for awhile now waiting to see if anyone else would report it. It has been in other markets, and I know some analysts who know about it but it hasn't been a story in the agricultural press that I've seen. And it sure hasn't been mentioned by paper traders. And yet it is a big and complex issue.

 

This is a feature of the ag press that always has puzzled me - and why I do what I do in terms of information.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: India embargos wheat exports

Pal

Tks for the heads up on India

I did not know that

My info about such things is certainly not as complete as [I would guess] you have put together, over the yrs.
just very much apprciate the stuff you share on this site. Certainly, I have never travelled to India, to see 1st hand

That other stuff about being very indian-I think I get that part, but mostly from what you have said from time to time

Sure hope you continue to share with those of us that don't know so much

On another note of interest

If anybody has some info on the developments of the southern drought

That would be helpful, for those of us that are some distance from on the ground observations vs. what is a normal spring event

The ag rumour mill is going high speed with little known facts in play

We have large world stocks of wheat, but no idea if this, and India, is a major event in the entirety, of world supply, or not

Hopefully the network of info continues, on this site

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Veteran Contributor

Re: India embargos wheat exports

Ditto for me, wglassfo......

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Senior Advisor

Yes, it's a big deal

India is a very big deal and here's why. India is the number 2 global producer of wheat, very close to China's production at times. Much of the increase in world production the last few years can be attributed solely to India. Because India has had bureaucratic, logistic, trade and cost related issues with exports they have also amassed a very large reserve of wheat - maybe equal to China. Between the two it accounts for a large amount of year end inventories for wheat. That wheat is not available in wold trade. Subtract those amounts from the global inventory and the amount of free wheat for global trade is much reduced.

 

I haven't done the math with available numbers but global year ending inventories may actually be close to 100 MMT than the figures of 175 MMT that are the assumptions. The issue becomes a matter of how close crunch time is if there is an unexpected downturn in production. And significant downturns are by definition, almost always unexpected.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Yes, it's a big deal

Mike, is this issue on your radar?  Or on the radar of any of your market contacts? 

I share Palouser's bewilderment as to why, if it is true, this is not a topic of discussion in ag marketing circles.  It sure was when it looked like India was about to crank up exports only a few months ago.

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Senior Contributor

Re: India embargos wheat exports

They only tell you what they want you to hear. Thanx for info.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: India embargos wheat exports

Another example of we don't even know what
News looks like.

AG news is no longer AG news.

It still gets on my nerves when "AG news",
Does stories on new equipment or products.

We used to call that advertising.

Maybe I'm just getting old.
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