cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Veteran Advisor

Interesting Observations

Kind of interesting how things are shaping up right now.  From just looking at the marketing articles on this website --

 

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/tuesday-cn-soybes-end-higher_9-ar50215

 

"Corn and soybean prices closed higher ahead of two U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that are expected to be bullish.

Traders are expecting the USDA to lower its crop ratings in a weekly progress report this afternoon and cut its yield projections in Friday’s monthly supply-and-demand report."

 

compared to:

 

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/soybeans/usda-likely-to-raise-yields-next-few_10-ar50214

 

"Obviously, Pro Ag expects unchanged or higher soybean yield estimates and about 2 bu/acre higher corn estimates.  If so, this will be very bearish in the report.  By the time this report shows up in media ink, we will know what the report said for sure.  But Pro Ag does NOT expect it to be bullish!"

0 Kudos
11 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Interesting Observations

I think Ray is a little behind.  With the weather we have been having, Iowa should have no trouble averaging 275 bu for the state.  I'm sure many of us will run circles around that guy with the record from Geogia, probably beat him 100-200 I would guess.  With his price progection, it still won't brake even.  If he ends up right just using weather models, I don't think I will ever do a hand check again.  Just look at the screen on my desk, it will tell me what my yield is.

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Interesting Observations

Yep, I'm gonna need another truck, cause I'm sure the one I have won't hold it all.  Now that's it rained a little again, the beans will re-flower and double-up there, too.  Any studies on any value to waterhemp?  Just thinking that maybe I've been "inter-cropping" all summer and just didn't know it.  Doubt there's any THC's in there, at least haven't noticed any mellow ducks anywhere, and all the grasshoppers seem healthy and happy.

 

It's just interesting to me how divergent the yield opinions have been for most of this growing season.  Locally, we've gone from an all-time corn yield breaker in 2014, to (yawn) perhaps just a top 5 yield in 2015, still above average in spite of everything, but still maybe 75% of 2014 yields, at least I'm hoping for that much.  Soybeans, who knows, at least we're not experiencing the widespread SDS like 2014, probably just due to the late planting.  And all that waterhemp -- that's organic matter, not just FM.  Still wondering about those acres, and why it's so difficult to get some convergence on some reasonably accurate range for the prevented planting.

0 Kudos
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Interesting Observations

FullSizeRender (2).jpg

Last two weeks have taken 2" off the ears on the left, 32k, yield estimate using 92k kernals down to 140 from 180 a few weeks ago. This corn did not run out of N btw...

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Interesting Observations

That's a very dramatic difference!  All due to hot and dry just this past month?  Looks like they pollinated okay, then gave up, kernal abortion.

 

Added -- here's the link I was originally looking for -- http://u.osu.edu/mastercorn/

 

Good general chart --  http://corn.osu.edu/newsletters/2011/2011-31/201cabnormal-corn-ears201d-poster-available

 

0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Interesting Observations

Time, those are the second ears I assume, or 50,000 population right. LOL

 

I have some like that and plant next to it will be at least an inch longer.  One row will have 26,000, then a few rows away might be 31,000.  Planted at 32000.  Just all very inconsistent.

0 Kudos
Veteran Contributor

Re: Interesting Observations

I read ray grabanski's 8 paragraph bear story and right after it was 3 paragraphs starting with these 2 sentences.

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing's Research Department.

 

I believe the above says a lot..................

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Interesting Observations

I kinda noticed that too (the disclaimer)

And it's considered "news"

Need I say more ?
0 Kudos
Senior Contributor

Re: Interesting Observations

Yep just what we all said guy here tried opening up some different corn this weekend 110 bu at 34% but by all means keep on following the projections 30 miles south of CBOT
0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Interesting Observations

first yield report from south of the nebraska boarder in Ks.... Harvested 9/8/15--- yesterday   16 moisture--- field average 47 bpa

Should be a lot of reports from Ks.  We saw a lot of harvested fields the last two days on our Kansas City run.... way too early...

Green color is gone.

 

------------------

Had a discussion with the boys.......... No sense in getting too caught up in helping those twins......

images.jpeg

 

 

0 Kudos