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Contributor

Re: Interesting basis levels

If crude goes to 120 by late august id say its close to a givin. Wll be short lived tho unless we are starring at a sub140 yield.

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Contributor

Re: Interesting basis levels

Kraft......we ALL have a few bushels of sweep auger stuff layn around.....if we didn't, we wouldn't have the opportunity to get in line with the truck for eveybody else to see its got $8 corn on its back even if its a load or two!...i aint stupid!  If we dont have the opportunity, we just auger the new corn in on top of it and say you were sold out.  ....fact!

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Contributor

Re: Interesting basis levels

kraft
I know ray spends all day on the phone talking to customer but as somebody that sits close enough to his area to send grain to him when bids warrant I also see the games him and others play in the immediate area. I spend some time also gathering info and knowing that a bulk of july contracts are being delivered and basis is going hard during this confirms what I have been hearing from my grain sources, feed mills and ethanol plants including the giant at ADM in CR need some pretty serious bushels before harvest. Not to mention the beans trains getting sold,loaded and shipped in 48 hrs from start to finish. Kraft I also think you are missing out on something else elevators will typically supply Ray with a bunch of corn in august and sept as they have held... it isn't happening this year as they puke ownership positions very quickly in this basis market. Hence his people going south for bushels
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Senior Contributor

Re: Interesting basis levels

Kraft you go top off rayj with your couple of bushels when he is using 11000 bushels an hour I am sure that is going to help him outSmiley Happy
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Senior Advisor

Re: Interesting basis levels

IMO Ray will give you the straight story from his end. He deals in a different world of marketing than the average farmer, with different concerns and objectives and timelines. I would not pretend to understand the utility of the different technical strategies he uses that we as producers are much less concerned with.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Interesting basis levels

Pal, you may be on to something.  Judging from Ray's corn bids, he must be pretty well covered as his bids are not very competitive right now.  Good for him.  Some of that corn in the bins is already heading on trains  out of state where there is a bigger demand/better bid.  Judging from the lateness of this crop, if he is that well covered, he deserves a big bonus this year.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Interesting basis levels

testing, testing....ah...hemmmm.......Please, would everyone remain seated while our techinicians sort out this small problem. We assure you all is well and will provide "free entertainment" during this short outage.......Hit it Ray,,,,,,,,ah 1, ah 2, ah 1234................................!

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Veteran Advisor

Thanks Guys

I didn't really know what was going on this morning, as a local coop was up more than the July increase, and then I checked the ethanol plant bids, and they up hugely for July and August. A local plant had not been operating as far as I could see, and now they are paying a premium over anyone else.

 

Thanks for the explanation, and hopefully a chance to get another $8 contract.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Thanks Guys

Wouldn't that be a tell tale sign of running out of supply sometime next month?

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