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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Interesting map of wheat supplies

It was just a graphic world map sent to me from S America showing importers and exporters of wheat and arrows showing flows. No hard figures. This was a graphic by FC Stone. Both the Black Sea area and Argentina had black 'x's on them w/ no arrows showing flow. I guess they are done. I think the issue in Argentina is that no more export permits will be signed by the government beyond those already done.

 

The government of Argentina was not allowing loaded ships to sail and i guess they were just counting chickens before they ascertain there is enough supply of quality wheat for their own people. Those ships will be released by all indications.

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5 Replies
ag-?
Veteran Contributor

Re: Interesting map of wheat supplies

How tight are supplies are going to get  on high quality  wheat  before we have new crop supplies to cover them. I have been thinking were going to see tighter supplies than we seen in 2008. I have been thinking  market  hasn't  realized that inventories are much  tighter than show in the last USDA reports. The salable wheat is not for sale in many countries so quality wheat for sale might be quite   

Small and us is the last resource for finding wheat. Now add in our drought and things  are getting serious  but I think market hasn't  put this together and when it does could be wild  ride. Just my thoughts liked to hear some other scenarios  but time will tell  what's going to happen.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Interesting map of wheat supplies

"Market hasn't realized that inventories are much tighter than show in the last USDA reports."   

 

That, my friends may be the understatement of the year.................

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chipster22
Veteran Contributor

Re: Interesting map of wheat supplies

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: Interesting map of wheat supplies

As it's frequently true, the idea of 'demand' in terms of the CME and the trends in physical wheat globally is hard to reconcile because they may be entirely seperate situations. First, the CBOT SRW delivery system does not represent the physical area where SRW is actually grown because Toledo and Chicago are regional in nature, and the CBOT doesn't WANT a delivery system that represents the actual production area because they don't want deliveries to muck up the flow of paper.  If the Mississipi River is closed then SRW representing the CBOT system is pretty much sequestered up north as far as exports are concerned during the winter ( I assume).

 

Egypt and others will prefer soft wheat. They also buy SWW from the PNW though it is usually at a comparative premium. In the physical context SRW is very important. Globally I believe soft wheats are the largest share of wheat grown. It probably is the biggest component of wheat traded globally, though I've never bothered to look up the figures.

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pritchh
Senior Contributor

Re: Interesting map of wheat supplies

In world trade, oe country buys what it needs and another sells what it has too much of.

 

No excess producer sTOPS,,, exporting, other than for short term seasons.

Maybe tey got bullisgh and,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, now are wrong..

 

FAS has a lot of ntfo o wheat flows.i

 

 

 

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