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Posts: 4,058
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Investors Get Short Corn at Record Levels

By Tony Dreibus

 

Speculative investors increased bets that corn prices would fall to a record in the week that ended on Jan. 12, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Money managers were net-short 195,338 futures-only contracts, up 16% from the prior week and the most on record, the CFTC said in a weekly report today. Including options, large speculators were net-short by 186,831 contracts, also the most-ever, government data show. Read more...........

 

Investors Get Record Short Corn

 

 

Just think when they start to get long. Now, that should be a heckuva rally.

 

Mike

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,620
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Investors Get Short Corn at Record Levels

I think it is a good story and very important..... even though it has nothing to do with corn...

 

Mike isn't this just as you said a Geopolitical issue...  The fear or promise, depending on how you view it, of the events in the middle east igniting into an ISIS fiesta, or the reality that crude is headed south until iran gets enough cash to own its own fireworks delivery system pretty much says "Sell all commodities that are going down with Crude oil".

The funds managers version of "The Big Short".

Not a bet I would want to win, but then a Fund has no sensitivity training......

 

Question is -- Does this irrational behavior (IN ALL ASPECTS) continue until the election.  Or do we get the explosive behavior that makes everybody want to buy a bag of commodities.....??

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,620
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Investors Get Short Corn at Record Levels

Marketeye if you can think about this for a second........

Is that rational "on topic"?

I don't think it has a thing to do with supply or demand of corn.....

But it is very much affecting the markets and affecting how much corn is or isn't being sold......

And therefore is "on Topic".

 

The markets are very much an emotional barometer at times........

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,996
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Investors Get Short Corn at Record Levels

ole eagle eye is right.......when they holler fire in that little trading pit, and one little door........it will be wild.  The markets

usually go too far each way.....i think we're going to the far end now....

 

question on the CFTC report......to figure out how to position oneself.....does it say what contract month things

are so active ?

 

would had to load up on a bunch of july calls, when just a month or two would be enough ???

 

"come on ole snake eyes daddy needs a new 4x4 tractor"

 

 

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 76
Registered: ‎09-26-2010
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Re: Investors Get Short Corn at Record Levels

what about buying dec 16 corn calls at $5.00 fairly cheap ,but one could buy many contracts and double your money real quick if the weather turns ,plus  lots of time to make things move. if things go hot and dry this summer it would be good to be in now . what does everyone think about this ? i will prob sell cash corn now and replace with calls.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 21,097
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Investors Get Short Corn at Record Levels


marketeye wrote:

By Tony Dreibus

 

Speculative investors increased bets that corn prices would fall to a record in the week that ended on Jan. 12, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Money managers were net-short 195,338 futures-only contracts, up 16% from the prior week and the most on record, the CFTC said in a weekly report today. Including options, large speculators were net-short by 186,831 contracts, also the most-ever, government data show. Read more...........

 

Investors Get Record Short Corn

 

 

Just think when they start to get long. Now, that should be a heckuva rally.

 

Mike

 

 


Who owns the long side of those contracts? Isn't very possible the money managers unwind their shorts as producers sell causing little movement in the market?

Advisor
Posts: 13,015
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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The hard thing

That kind of positioning can go on for a long time and even grind a bit lower but it tends to indicate the big drop is over.

 

Eventually something will trigger a big short covering rally. the hard part is to make sales on that rally, as I'm sure many didn't when the same occurred in late June last year.

 

Of course it is early in the game for new crop. Might be time to be getting some cheap OTM calls on so as to have some cover for future sales.

 

Strategy Trumps Opinion.

Advisor
Posts: 13,015
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Re: The hard thing

Whining is its own reward.

 

But the shorts are the best friends you have, they're what will get the market into an overvalued state, temporarily.

 

Good market moves are caused by the folks who are wrong, not who's "right."