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Veteran Advisor

Iowa Commodity Challenge 19 Oct

OK, I signed up for the Iowa Commodity Challenge with the plan to use input from members of this forum to make the trades.  We have 75,000 corn and 25,000 soybeans we have to market by 15 March 2017.  We can use futures, options, cash forward and cash transactions.  Cash is based at Bondurant (north of Des Moines).

We can sell as much as we want as fast or slow as we want.

Anyone who wants more detail go ahead and ask, or you can sign up for the game on your own to get full access to the help files.

My plan is to get a consensus at least once a week to see what the group choice is.  We can trade any day we want, but it seems that if we pick a day each week to circle the wagons we don't forget to keep up.  Let's hear your suggestions on a day.  Is there one day of the week you'd prefer to review our positions and make new ones?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Iowa Commodity Challenge 19 Oct

my thoughts are that you are in deep doo doo if you have 100,000 bushels of grain that you have to market by March 2017.

 

THe game in town, as it has been for the last couple of years, is to watch the futures for your estimated cost of production prices or better and lock them in. Selling into the cash markets right now is almost a certain route to bankruptcy.

 

I am already looking at marketing 2017 crops and will get my estimated cost of production put together soon. I think it will below the $4 corn and $10 soybean benchmarks and I will be watching for a good

opportunity to lock in prices down the road of above my COP.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Iowa Commodity Challenge 19 Oct

then the BK attorneys are going to be very busy....

 

this is the second year where the markets topped and when they fell, they fell continuously without much of a recovery in the summer months.......surprisingly the Dec futures recovered 44 cents from the end of August to the middle of October, but nobody seemed to feel very good about it since it was "never enough"

 

there is a massive amount of unsold grain in the countryside at the present time

 

the next item is seeing how much corn has to go on the ground to get to the end of harvest....will the traditional bunkers hold it, or will a lot just have to hit the ground in true temporary fashion......

 

Ray J

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