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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Is $8 enough

It looks like it is headed there. It hasn't been that long aho I sold beans for  $8.15 while you guys held your for $13 and $14.

 

Just wondering if your gonna move your goal posts back or if you even know what you want.?  Me? I've made so many mistakes in the last six months that it is a formula for failure. Alas I got a few bucks in tha bank and I still think my $5 corn will show a profit this fall. If not i still have my old crop overrun to tide me over til harvest m2012. Are any of you contracting 2012 corn yet or do you think these marketswill stay up forever. If thats the case $8K land is too cheap.

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11 Replies
Pat in CMO
Senior Contributor

Re: Is $8 enough

 I'm right there with you. Last fall I looked back at the last two years (held grain to long both years) and went ahead and sold for march delivery. My fall delivery corn contracts last year avereged around 3.95. I do have some new crop 2011 sold for 6.20, but not very much. I think I will wait just a little longer. I've made so many bad calls the last few years, I'd be the last one to follow.  Patrick

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Is $8 enough

I have not hedged any 2012 corn and very, very little 2011.  I have a few loads of 2010 corn yet to go.  The market is very volatile.  I't is possible to get $8 delivered for July delivery.

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Is $8 enough

sold out on old crop. think now 7.00 will take what i cant store for 11.

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: Is $8 enough

Our cash bids are the same for July. Sept is at $7.74 , Jim.Do you market locally or do you have to haul a ways to get $8. Cedar rapids or elswhere?

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Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Re: Is $8 enough

Most of my grain sales are to ADM in Cedar Rapids or GPC in Muscatine.  Occassionally, I'll sell to Cargill or Penford in CR and have sold to Burlington and even Keokuk but rarely.  I've sold a couple of loads to feeders.  I never sell to the local COOP - they are not price competitive.

I see that my $8 bid is no longer there.  The market shrank back from when I talked to the buyer this morning.  Here are the bids.

http://www.katsgrain.com/index.cfm?show=10&mid=24

As you can see, I can get  7.94 but not $8. 

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centralillinois
Veteran Contributor

Re: Is $8 enough

If  the corn in central Illinois is knee high by the fourth of July it's a sign of an excellent crop.  We'll be a couple weeks behind but we still have a good stand with more than enough moisture.  If the weather isn't predicted to turn hot and dry it will be difficult to hold onto the last corn from 2010.  I've never been half sold before July but this might be the year.  In 2008 the market started to retreat about June 15th.  If I don't get $8 I'm still in good enough shape to be a government employee.  I could retire at 55.  But I won't.

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SouthWestOhio
Senior Contributor

Re: Is $8 enough

Central don't forget the fundamentals of supply are much different this year. The seasonal price retreat we've witnessed in prior Junes may not be the logical path for the markets this year. Even if it doesn't turn hot and dry supplies will be very very tight and will require rationing.

 

And over here in Ohio our motto for the past 15 years has been "knee high by the 4th of June". That didn't happen this year.

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centralillinois
Veteran Contributor

Re: Is $8 enough

Sorry southwest, but I meant to say fourth of June.  Illinois isn't a big wheat producer, but early forecasts are for big yields.  When prices get high enough, nitrogen is poured on and fungicide is  flown on.  I'm a little far north to have decent double crop beans, but this year we'll see more beans planted after wheat than normal. 

 

Agronomists are saying with the hot, wet weather fall applied nitrogen experienced higher than normal losses.  Applicators are getting hard to come by with farmers making sure there's enough nitrogen out there. 

 

I don't know what percentage of corn is normally applied with fungicide, but this year producers will spend more on fungicide than ever before.  Rarely is corn higher priced than wheat so eventually something has to give.  I want the bull to keep running more than anyone,  but if local hog producers can't make money we'll see lower weights heading to market.  I'll know more in a month, but I hate to lose out.

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nwobcw
Advisor

Re: Is $8 enough

   Corn was $8.15 at the local elevator Saturday, June 11th.

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