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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Is CBOT market an illusion

What has changed pre 2008 and now......

Being recognized as one of this boards leading conspiratologistical promoters.  Try this experiment.....

Take market price out of your mind,  ignore the long snowball roll down the hill.  

 

What has changed between say, 2005 and 2015?  major corn growing areas are the same,  wheat comes from the same 4-5 main source areas,  Freight happens the same way ----- No intercontinental grain pipelines have been built ( yet I am sure the idea would work)  ......................................etc  Freight is not cheaper.....  The worlds population is still growing and most of it lives fairly close to where it did.  

I have thought of a few.

1 The CBOT, Computer board of trade, has changed from a good ole boy network to the Great big good ole computer savy boy network..moving day and night and harder to evaluate.......

2 Usda is now telling us that a surplus in Argentina or Angola(or anywhere around the world) will moderate supply and price in Indiana.

I get the idea we are told monthly to keep our eye on the world supply as though it will be there when the local elevators are out.. latest example being our infatuation with China's stores, as if that will be available to the rest of the world..... A country that still sees value in having something in the pantry..

Imagine your mother telling you that we don't keep surplus food.  Those folks across town who have a lot will take care of us if we get in trouble.........  sorry mind wandered.

 

3 One thing that has changed is my education's teaching that price moderates supply.  High prices increase supply and low prices decrease supply  and viser verser for demand......... Is it possible that the electronic trade moves fast enough to put this out of whack...

Like trying to put a garden hose float valve on the niagara river?

or is the worlds grain supply in so few hand that the transportation is now going to be paid by the seller rather than the buyer??

Anyway the whole idea of price moderation is looking more like a sudden rise in price signal supply is out.  At least locally --- or stocks are at 800 million but we left it in our other pants in iowa....

Otherwise price action says,  I got to believe this fall grain is selling in larger numbers than the last several years right off the combine.

No matter who says "Slow farmer selling".... CBot is not saying that.....

 

 

 

What has changed in your view, besides your health and waistline...

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 Replies
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Is CBOT market an illusion

sw...the world has put about 100 mil acres into crop production. That is pretty significant.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Is CBOT market an illusion

Time--- lets make that number 4 on the list of things changed in the last ten years....

 I view the satalite imagery for SA with some regularity.  Like many other subjects we here a lot of "lip service" but ---supporting your thought, I am not sure there was ever a slowdown in developing ag in South America.

And it is one issue that supports the steadiness of supply on a year round basis.  And does moderate the time that a drought in a producing region affects supply...   

The interior countries are beginning to be significant players as well.

 

 

Location, Location, Location........

 

Also makes me think about the difference in attitudes between China and the US in regards to the Panama canal...in recent years.

 

One of those small issues that give us a clue as to how "world leadership" has changed.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Is CBOT market an illusion

Sorry sw since Jen is back and therefore a lady
In the house.....I can't make my true opinion
About the cbot known
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