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Frequent Contributor

Is It Time To Follow The Trend for next week?

I shorted the Novi Bean contract @ 10.36 on Friday after the report,  do you think that the high is in and what are your thoughts about hitting the $10.00 level next week?   

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6 Replies
Frequent Contributor

Re: What is the trend for next week?

I don't think the trend has changed. A correction is in the offing , maybe. If the trend for corn continues up I would think Soy will follow along. Do you really think the Soy yields are as good as they say? Everyone has always said that Soy is determined by the August rains or in this case the lack of rains and the heat didn't help a thing either. Short beans with a lot of pods and small tiny beans with only two to three beans in them do not make for any yield records. The beans that I've seen maturing does not look that good.. I think Soy is still in a up trend.  A little Harvest correction and to the races again.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Is It Time To Follow The Trend for next week?

I have no idea what the price of beans will be, but ProFarmer says pod weights are down from last year. Supposedly there will need to be 3 million more acres of corn next year, probably robbed from bean acres. If corn prices get better, it`s hard to imagine beans getting a whole lot cheaper. La Nina on the horizon???

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Senior Contributor

Re: Is It Time To Follow The Trend for next week?

I went to about 80% sold, maybe less if the yields come in as good as they look, on Thursday on the soybeans. I still had an old HTA contract at over $12 for this fall, so with my other sales, and the new one on Thursday, I ended up with cash $10.79 for the bulk of what should be in my fields. Barring any hail, I should pull the most soybeans out of my fields in many years. The tops are filling out, and adding that last burst of beans. I am hoping to average over 50bpa. The last two years, with drought, I have had some fields not make 30 in the lighter areas, and even the best field last year did not top 50BPA.

 

The 2010 corn crop is 2/3 to 75% sold, depending on yield, for what may end up being average prices, cash averaging about $4.30.....but I have to remember that I took some hedge profits a couple of years ago, too, so the average is actually a bit better in reality. I really don't know what the corn will yield, but it has to be the best crop on average I have ever produced. The sand is right up there with the heavy soils, since it rained virtually every week , just like clockwork. I think corn has a hard time taking out $5, but I may be wrong and I will still have about a third left to sell at higher prices if they develop, and also will contract 2011 as I have most of the inputs locked in for next year. I can make money at $4 corn, and anything over is gravy.

 

Bears make money, Bulls make money....pigs get slaughtered.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Is It Time To Follow The Trend for next week?

I said all summer that corn would hit 4.50 for the dec contract.  We've hit it I think we move side ways with a few bumps up and down from here.  I think after the first of the year we move lower till mid Feb than we have a move higher till 3-31.  Beans should be held for weather scares out of SA and sold on those moves higher.  Corn just shouldn't be stored this year unless sold this fall! 

Just my two cents. 

BTW we started shelling corn yesterday 31% just right for the harvestore.  I don't have a yield monitor but looks to be around 200 BU.  I will have them out with the weigh wagon tomorrw or tuesday. 

Most of the corn silage I have been in has yield adjustments around 185 to 227 was the highest.  Some real good corn out there this year. JR

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Senior Contributor

Re: Is It Time To Follow The Trend for next week?

Is that 200 bu/a wet yield?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Is It Time To Follow The Trend for next week?

4WD 206.7 adjusted to 15% dry by the elevator.  sorry I didn't get back to you sooner we just finished up with the corn harvest tonight. there is no more cropsw to harvest on our farm as of tonight.  (except for fifth cutting hay which won't be till sometime in OCT. 

JR

 

 

 

 


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