Reply
Advisor
Posts: 4,036
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Is It Time To Sell

Cash corn has had a 20¢ rally, a six-month high. Soybeans have seen a nice pop. A little birdie is telling me that it's time for farmers to consider making incremental sales. Are you preparing to do so?

 

This particular marketwatcher says Tuesday:

 

"When I look ahead to late February, I have three concerns. First is the Chinese New Year Holiday that starts on February 16. This results in a two-week slow-down in imports and usually takes the U.S. grain market lower. Second is the USDA Ag Outlook conference on February 22. That usually releases some pretty negative numbers on acreage and carryout. Add on to that heavy farmer cash needs in early March, and I think you can see why I am recommending sales now."

 

What say you?

 

 

Thanks for your kind replies,

 

Mike 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,544
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Is It Time To Sell

I was just thinking................ there are several of those formerly quiet "market tracking guides" perking up..... glancing around...... and starting to chirp.....

I was thinking the three year harvest low has stayed low pretty well in corn and there is enough weather threat around that we now have a 6 months high in "something somewhere".... maybe the folks who hire the chirpers see some risk in waiting to buy or at least want to stimulate some purchases while prices are where they are.  Those new crop prices (along with some improved basis have a few end user new crop contracts falling at $4.10 to $4.15 and catching a few nibbles in sw ks.

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,963
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Is It Time To Sell

I'll say this....the 3 reasons cited.....sure do have
Alot to do with ""fundamentals""...whatever those
Are anymore
Honored Advisor
Posts: 17,063
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Is It Time To Sell

image.png

Senior Contributor
Posts: 452
Registered: ‎03-10-2014
0

Re: Is It Time To Sell

Holy smokes guys, its been a few months since I've put in my two cents. Looks like the same conversation! Did SW go Organic yet or do I have to do a bit more convincing? This $12 soft white wheat is pretty rough. Better wait until the price goes back up!
Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,544
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Is It Time To Sell

[ Edited ]

What % of the demand market is organic wheat.... ? 

I'm good at numbers (or used to be)... when the demand share of the market for organic wheat gets big enough that a coop somewhere in driving distance reserves bin space for it and documents production with something more than a promise.  I'll be there to flood your market out of existence.

Until then it is a political con game used against poorly educated consumers.

 

Is it 0.6 % of wheat acres yet.....?

And keep in mind that the price is set to encourage production.... those who want to reap the profits of fad need product.... yet at $12 per bushel it still can't fight its way into 1% of the production acres.   Why..... because the cost of production is not far below $12 per bushel.

And the % of products found on the Grocery store "clearance & outdated" bargain shelf........well that is where the organic label  % is pretty good.

  

 

I am not opposed..... I'll be there when a profit is there.  I just don't see it as an option for the vast majority of honest wheat producer........ or an option that has the strength to become a big share of the market.  I think it has had long enough to prove itself in the market place and so far it just looks like a step backwards in time and education for agriculture...... A movement that has no legs without demonizing its competition.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,544
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Is It Time To Sell

Sorry    cause if you have read my comments on this before..... my thoughts haven't changed much and I get repetitive.

 

January is the month when I do cash flows and we evaluate crop options....... Organic is still on our list, somewhere below switching wheat acres to cotton.  

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 699
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Is It Time To Sell

Interesting you mention cotton. How high is that on your list? Curious because I'm looking at cotton as well. Organic is not on my list. I have no storage and no local delivery points nixes that idea
Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,544
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Is It Time To Sell

[ Edited ]

Lots of interest in cotton west of ya.  We (Liberal west)had many circles of new cotton last year ant they think it will double again this year.

Texas panhandle is projected to be more acres of cotton than corn above Amarillo... 

Corn expenses are high and noone has the water they once had..... lots of 300-400 gpm wells per quarter corn is just pricing itself out of the market for marginal water.

Stevens co ks has a gin already and they are expecting a big push to cotton... 2 of my favorite local bankers were both talking about it yesterday.

 

Pretty good cotton yields here in spite of that cold august and lots of rain.  

Personally I get an accounting lump in my throat when the answer to bad economics is  a lot more $$$ to make the switch... there are always alternative ways to weather the storm.  Again, technology swells the lump...... this trend of development that says "it may be obsolete in 5 years" sure rattles me when we are laying out the dollars we do for equipment.  I hope this don't lead to days of hoeing cotton and shocking wheat.

 

The industrial age took us out of the slave and subsistence  driven economies and into mechanized farming.  Where does the digital age take farming in the long run?

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,379
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
0

Re: Is It Time To Sell

My guess is sell now if you need the money soon, but other than that prices should rise into the spring seasonally.  But, I'd be cautious about carrying grain into the summer as about then everyone is going to be watching the carry-out.

 

That is assuming we don't have a big weather issue sometime this year.  No reason to assume we will have, but if we do the store-and-hold boys will be happy.