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Advisor

Is July corn topped?

Will it go much higher? Have a good basis locked in so do not want to roll into Sept. Thinking of dumping the rest on another good up day like today. If it does not, are we not leaving an unfilled gap? Thought it might go to where July was when it went off board. Thanks.
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11 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Is July corn topped?

In the same position------ Intended to price the first of the week but got mentally "delayed"---------- I like tour thinking.

 

It isn't the top of sales for the year, but It is not that far from it.

 

answer--------- close to yes

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Honored Advisor

Re: Is July corn topped?

I'm thinking new crop is going to lead now.

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Advisor

Re: Is July corn topped?

I tend to agree sw. I think the Goldman roll might be having some effect.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Is July corn topped?

i don't know a lot about forward or basis contracts.....assuming you were talking about capturing "basis?" - bkadds.

 

so I guess i'm not sure what you mean either, sw about being near the top of "sales" ----as in volume-wise?

 

I thought the "roll" was about done as it typically is about this date...and if so, how will different months perform after it's through?

 

wow, bkadds, just noticed radar---you get some substantial rain, yes!

 

thanks,

c-x-1

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Honored Advisor

Re: Is July corn topped?

cx-1,

Bkadds and I are in a good basis area----- local basis will run up to meet spot needs.  I often price on basis old crop this time of year because often the improvement is disconnected to market movement.  This is my final for the corn 2012 crop and I set basis in May for delivery in July.  I have til august to set the price.  The rain in Iowa has delayed pricing.  Priced today I am still in the $7.80 range.

Taking a little risk with the last 2%.  The odds have to be pretty good or I work it the other way.

 

Other way------ market trend down----- Sell the corn on the board earlier in Feb or Mar and save an equal amount of corn in bins to try to capture a "good" basis then price and buy back board corn.   Most years are surplus corn production and this way.

 

We are seeing production problems, at least for this year -- will not last forever.  Fun to have the first senario for a while.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Is July corn topped?

thanks sw,

I have my bead on things, but as you know mktg and mkt/chart action have their differences.

do you think your basis will close as Jul contract approaches FN day?--as that what "top of sales" means?

 

 

i guess you're thinking most end users are covered through August for New crop to take the lead now.

thanks for helping me wrap my head around the mktg aspect! --I will continue learning till i die.

 

c-x-1

 

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Advisor

Re: Is July corn topped?

Cx--I would be surprised if we got .1. Kinda split over Dalhart, unfortunately. Look at the forecast for this next week when you get a second--all 100s basically. I would gladly give some gdu to anybody up north.
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Senior Contributor

Re: Is July corn topped?

I will trade you 30 degrees for 2 inches of rain..even up and I would haul it if I could...MikeM

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Advisor

Re: Is July corn topped?

Deal, Mike! I will even throw in some 40-50 mph winds. How can anyone pass that up?
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