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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Is mt in the house

Hobby my mand this year I counted eggs,chicken, salamanders, turtles and horses.  I am still closer to the truth then almost all the bulled up farmers on all the boards.  If so many people close their lips and opened their ears they would have saved so much money this year.  FYI,  get ready to slug it out in the next few years we aren't done with the bear market, not by a long shot.

Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Is mt in the house

That's great, I will call my grain buyers right now and let them know i will be delivering ears weigh similar to 2004

Course, I will probably get a dead silence moment before they say, we don't take ear corn, shelled only

Something I'm trying to figure out, how come we are ahead of last year by a good ways on corn maturity. 24 percent ahead on dough stage compared to this time last year and 12 percent ahead of 2004. And 2004 was a good month ahead in planting, at least.

Sorry but things just don't jive.
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Is mt in the house

be, I totally agree there are lean tines ahead.  We've had seven  fat year's and I fully expect seven lean years could be in the offing. But they may not be contiguous.

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425Cat
Advisor

Re: Is mt in the house

The big bear won't come until fall of 2015. You're a year early buck.
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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Is mt in the house

Farsider,

 

You have the big question

I was reviewing SD reports back 40 years for that goofy -94 number on the soybean report and the thing that jumps out at ya is demand/usage.  We are using a lot of grain.  It would be interesting to look at those charts and see how much $7 corn took demand down------ suprisingly little  

We should chart the changes in corn and bean usage for the last 30 years ---- gotta be impressive.  It is what keeps me positive on the crops.  We need these record crop debates and we still barely cover the demand.

What happens when the economy isn't flat or cattle numbers come back up  I can think of 250K head feeding capacity locally that is feeding holsteins or empty waiting for beef cows.

 

 

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farmerguy89
Advisor

Re: Is mt in the house

I don't know how you guys can still be so unable to give up the conspiracy theories... People who propagate them generally can't very prove them... So think about that. You can't and probably won't. Your responsible for proving It to be true: not me. You have the responsibility of the burden of proof if you wanna claim things..

It's going to be a big crop. I can't even fit the god **bleep** sweet corn on my plate: isn't that enough?

I'm tending to think 170-180 won't be far off for me with no frost and my reduced acres...

But really we won't know anything until we get to harvest.. I get that the usda can't prove their yield predictions, but you guys can't either nor can I...

I think you guys are way offside... And I still can't believe this Missouri guy thinks the corn is goin to be crap when missori was or is on the high side of conditions... I'm sure we will get a response on how all is not well though
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turdypointbuck
Frequent Contributor

Re: Is mt in the house

Too many days without rain, Missouri will come in under 150.
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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Is mt in the house

IA is way too high
IL is a tad too high
NE is too high
MN is way too high
IN is too high

Who said a 12.8B crop was a disaster. It's quite large really
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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Is mt in the house

  Using the 5 year average ear weight is just about as useful as when Darren Newsom uses the 5 year average in his seasonal writeups in the magazines. Pretty ill-advised. We will be about 20% above the 5 year average on our ear weights. Yes, we have been below average for 4 of the 5 years so it is a pretty achieveable number despite how high it sounds. Projecting 210 and our 5 yr avg is 175, so it is 20% above the 5 yr avg. 

   Bad input equals questionable output from NASS sometimes.

 

 

vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Is mt in the house

Someone gets it ken. People have to go back to a marketing plan and quit thinking they can swing for the fences every year. Once the mt's of the world start marketing their crop instead of bining it it and let it ride will we truelly bottom the corn market. And yes ken using a shrunken five year average for ear weights in a cool summer with lots of grain fill is insane.
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