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Senior Advisor

Is that all you got ??

I just read the article here....wheat hits multi year lows.....and goes further to report "largest stocks in history".....YET....

only down a couple of cents............with all that negative news (what else could you say ???) and only a few cents down.


didn't i also read a few days ago, that funds were getting out of the short side of the markets, all be it not as much in wheat

as in others........


so, the question is...........haven't we just about knocked it down enough ?


when the bearish of bearish of news........when the night looks the darkest..........when everyone gets on one side of the ship.....


don't things seem to shift.........even in the game of "trading".......we're out of postions, now we need to re-enter, and "logic"


says you don't take the same postion you had, rather "things are bound to go the opposite direction"....even if for no other


reason, "things have to change direction, even for a while.


but.......are we heading below $2 ??????????


question is...........if it goes that low.......will ANYONE plant next fall.............then watch the markets take off !!!


punt.......pass or kick ??

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4 Replies
Frequent Contributor

Re: Is that all you got ??

Maybe the traders are starting to find it difficult to follow the USDA numbers. I am still very confused as to why the latest USDA report showed Australian wheat production being 2mmt higher than what our own forecaster has said production was this year, you would think that our own country has a better idea of what our production was this year especially considering that harvest finished a couple of months ago.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Is that all you got ??



I have asked the same question to my Brazilian counterparts, about the crop estimates that come out of their country vs. the USDA. I asked what source they find more credible, CONAB or AgRural or there is another source that puts out estimates down there? And you know what they say? They say "USDA".

Because they know the world markets are watching and react to what the USDA says.



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Frequent Contributor

Re: Is that all you got ??

Interesting comments marketeye. Can you take that one step further and say that the reality of fundermentals are irrelevant and what only matters in terms of markets are what the majority of people "think" is the reality? 

Honored Advisor

Re: Is that all you got ??



Thanks sneaky,  so true in this case especially....   

It is the one point that will draw ire from usda...  Questioning the credibility of their process...


 We can go from short supplies of wheat (2010--when Russia had problems) to an over abundance in 18 to 24 months (during which time the US had two bad crops).  And as I remember Austrailia had a struggle in that time frame as well....  But usda is very creative with numbers.  I have seen them adjust them two years back...


 real fundamentals don't matter to usda..  They hardly step out of Washington....


Their biggest accomplishment is (as it has been for our government since the 1990's) convincing the world that our new definition of terms is accurate.... Convincing the world that a few weeks supply is a too much...-- redefining terms...

The world consumes so much more production than it did in the 1960's and we are still adjusting to the recent move to a world trade format.  So even a few weeks supply looks like big numbers to bureaucrats who want "fresh" grains on their plate---- raised and shipped last week..


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