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Veteran Advisor

Is today the day?

Probably not but some day will be.

 

A credible research firm says that they are unable to find another historical example of the SP 500 trading over the 20 day moving average for 33 consecutive  days.

 

From Robert Prechter- only 2 other times in 50 years where the SP 500 has gone 30 days without a correction of at least .3%.

 

Here's a blast of wisdom from the past (we are all relics now)- healthy markets have corrections and the converse is (was) that unbroken levitations are not healthy. They tend to crash.

 

Do I think the market is going to crash? Actually really don't have a clue in this environment and actually think that the flash crash problem of last May (undersimilar sentiment and market conditions) has undoubtedly been "fixed" (my take- almost certainly a glitch in the algorith of a HFT trade program with one of the masters of the universe). I'm virtually certain that the PPT won't get caught asleep at the switch next time.

 

Strategy trumps opinion as far as grains go.  I'm trolling some out of the money puts under the market financed by out of the money calls. Done in the March with the hope tht they both expire worthless and I eat the commisions. Then I very well may do the same thing in the May, selectivelyu as apparent market conditions might dictate.

 

fwiw, h

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Is today the day?

So nox you have alot of faith in the pupet masters being able to keep up the show then, huh?  I wouldn't bet against them now either. Maybe the thing to watch for is if Steve Jobs dies. would that kill the stock market?  Some land sold a mile from me that was 69 CSR brought 7,000 an acre. I heard some rich investor from OKIE bought it but that might be a rumor to!Smiley Very Happy

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Senior Advisor

Re: Is today the day?

I told you guys several months ago to "not fight the FED" and you all told me that QE2 was evil.......QE2 will be disappear when things are on solid ground and the balance sheets will likely be "brought up to date".........10 years from now it will be a distant memory and we will hopefully be well on our way......

 

As for a correction, it will be a healthy 7% over 4-6 weeks and then we go higher.......first 6 months look like a good one for 2011.....second half maybe be choppy but we will likely end 2011 higher than today......

 

Think of it this way, since March of 2009 when we bottomed we have had a helluva run.....that said 2010's choppy trade helped even that out with time and stale movement until late in the year........now a great deal of investors missed a good deal of the 2009 bottom because confidence was shaken.......we have seen a stabilization in balance sheets and confidence in the last 6 months..........THAT EQUATES TO A LOT OF PENT UP DEMAND, seems to be increasing dollars into equities........this will likely drive markets straight up with a few small corrections along the way........if you believe 2011 is a bullish one then right now is a time to be looking at dips.......actually last July-August was a good time to get in so we are about 4-6 months in of what I perceive to be a multi-year run........it will run and dip but we have cleared the bottom scalp from 2009 and put in a base during 2010......

 

Remember there are always bearish stocks in a bull market and vice versa.......its the ratio that counts for the broader market.....its your position that counts for your bottom line........

 

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Is today the day?

I wonder what he would have paid for some good land. There is some 78 CSR land about 3 miles from one of mine that they are asking $7445 for 155 tillable acres. I suppose I could pay for it if I had a nice established dairy herd. It must be nice milking cows. Just go out 2 or 3 times a day and empty them out.

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Contributor

Re: Is today the day?

Is CSR (corn siutablity rating) only used in Iowa, or can it be used in other states?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Is today the day?

I think it is specific to the soil structure of this state.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Is today the day?

Jeez there Krafty get with the times I am thinking put up robots and don't even go out. Hire a mexican to feed and I am going to stay in the house year round and just sit back and collect the dough!  I didn't buy it cause I have been making so much money milkin cows I felt bad showin up the cropper guys!  And BTW I am not greedy I only milk 2 tiomes a day the really greedy guys milk 3 times.  HA HA

This land is just south of the golf course in wesely.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Is today the day?

mizzou, off the meds again? sorry could nt resist. this thing is driven by the high frequency trades of the big boys. there is no widespread participation on this rally. it is just the big boys jerkin each other for a few pennies per share.  when john q public decides he cant stand on the sidelines and starts to pile in , the bloodletting will start anew. fwiw d7

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Is today the day?


@dapper7 wrote:

mizzou, off the meds again? sorry could nt resist. this thing is driven by the high frequency trades of the big boys. there is no widespread participation on this rally. it is just the big boys jerkin each other for a few pennies per share.  when john q public decides he cant stand on the sidelines and starts to pile in , the bloodletting will start anew. fwiw d7


Was talking to a grain buyer yesterday dapper and he said a lot like you that it is the 'big guys' the funds that are running this market.

If/when they decide to get out he wonders just who will be there to buy and so how low will it go.

Now I know fundamentals will kick in somewhere, sometime but how low before the real buyers will start to buy.

He says there are not a lot of users buying right now in Ontario.

We did have a good crop here and we have been exporting when we usually need to import. Our basis is stuck at export level.

Chicago rises and our price for the actual commodity might go up a little but it is not lock step with the place that is suppose to 'discover the real price'.

 

I for one will be looking at selling more if I hear about 'john q public' getting in on the good times.

Not smart enough to pick the top so am happy to take a little off the plate at intervals on the way up. Then I will sleep bette when it is going back down and I only have a little of the dear corn, beans and wheat left.   

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Is today the day?

Guess I missed it by a day. OF course in a broader sense I've missed it by a bunch- I didn't have enough respect for the power of the Fed to unleash wild speculation- they can't make anybody rich but they can sure punish the daylights out of anyone who stands in their way.

 

These aren't markets, it a casino and like a casino it will fleece the majority before it is over.

 

BTW, Nasdaq has seen the most speculative action and it has broken the major uptrend line this morning.

 

Got no idea what will happen but wouldn't rule out the possibility that it will just keep going down from here as opposed to what happened with the flash crash where the first shot down was supported for a few days while the big boys offloaded as much of their booty as they could on widows and orphans.

 

fwiw, h

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