Sonoma, BINGO...........

[JRfrom OR]

Ray,   I'll take a shot at that. 

Food becomes something of value and Americans cut back on the 40-50% waste each year.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Well....200-300M from ethanol......200-300M from exports.......100 or so residual......

Implications.....start with the easy one....exports.....none....if anything their lack of business means more meat exports from US later on.....and its not like anyone likes us anyway......they would have taken business elsewhere if they could....so we are not losing customers......

Residual/feed.........use up some of this excess feed wheat.....tweak rations a little more.......little less HFCS.........

Ethanol.........what do we chew thru a day 13-14M......so that's what 10-20 days shut down.......sounds like a few might just do that for the month of August if margins are red....

These are viable options that could all happen with some market movements........its delicate......but its doable.....it has to happen naturally and not by meddling hands.....no matter how good the intent was.....that's been my point all along.....and yes I understand yours.....I assume you believe we can not have said outcomes naturally occurring without chaos.....I am not ready to give up hope yet.....but I do think prices need to creep higher to start some more aggressive rationing......I do agree that a spike upward that is sustained will hurt...

[oncearound]

jec22............best answer yet! you can't make it much simpler, as a % of household costs, food should be priority #1. from there, everything else will fall into line as deemed needed!!!!!!!! the USA has long since warn out the "cheap food policy" that allows 80%+ of the Farm Programs to be directed to a class of Americans whom will not work and receives food/housing so all they have to do is sit at home and eat, drink & procreate!!!!!!!!!!!!  

[sonoma72]

HFCS may be a self fulfilling proficy.  600-800 million bushels per year.  At the rate the bad press is running that number will certainly drop, I am sure it has already. 

[rayjenkins]

Corn for HFCS usage is up this year over last.....strong exports are helping as well as sugar prices which make HFCS attractive

some of the same things working in favor of ethanol exports are helping HFCS.....so when global sugar production rebounds/increases it could affect corn for ethanol and HFCS in the US at same time a ways down the road...

[idalivered]

Ray, If there is a temp shutdown of ethanol plants (for pay) they will more than double their profits by selling forward procured stocks of corn on the world or local market.. I've got  $4.42, 4.71, and 6.01 to deliver for july. someone, whether feedmill or ethanol mill has some decent profit margins there even if they use it themselves. The possibility exists that I am the only farmer forward contracted, tho.....

[rayjenkins]

Processing businesses do not carry large unhedged positions.....they either sold ethanol/ddg's when they bought the corn or have it hedged in some fashion.....and those ethanol/ddg's were at much lower prices than today's values, so if they unwind the position, the money they are going to make on the corn is going to be largely offset by the losses incurred buying back the etoh/feed.....it's a business of capturing margins, not speculating on the corn market....

I realize most farmers think someone is capturing windfall profits with their $4 corn, but that is not the case for 95% of the situations...

[idalivered]

True enough,rAy.. How does the improvement in basis effect the well-hedged enduser?