It has begun
The movement of large quantities of corn has begun INTO the Eastern corn belt.
The origin of it hasn't be stated but it came UP the Miss river then UP the Ohio R to Cincinnati then reloaded onto rail and down to the east central Indiana area. Suspicions are it came from southern Ark or Northern Louisiana.
There is corn booked into that area from South America in the second half of Jan and Feb area.
One large corn merchandiser usually gets 4 million at harvest, has only 500,000 on hand in that area.
The large cattle feeding area of SW Ks, OK, and Tx panhandle normally imports corn for the equivalent of 9 months feed in a normal year. My area of SW Iowa normally sends many 100+ car unit trains to Hereford, Texas every year.
The transportation in SA (especially Brazil)is not geared for large exports of a high volume crop like corn. They have ships sitting in port there with fert and other crop inputs that can't and will not get unloaded in time for corn planting in the near by planting time.
My memory says that the Brazilians at the meeting last week thought the most corn would increase was 1 or 2% in the first planting.
$6 or even $7 corn does not seem to be limiting usage as much as will be needed to make it to Sept next year.
To me the fundamentals are for suddenly higher prices some time in the late winter early spring time.
things that could derail that thought process is war in the Middle East, Total monetary collapse, Europe implosion, China revolution. . .
These are a few of my thoughts after talking to more people since the meeting on the 11th. Don't bet the farm on my mussings alone ... NO WARRANTY of validity
Re: It has begun
I was told at the end of September that they where taking train loads of corn from North dakota to Illinios for livestock feed since the corn there was so high in alfatoxin.
Re: It has begun
Corn WILL come into the port of Wilmington on the SE coast because it was specifically built for that, having inefficient rail connections from the Midwest into that feed deficit area of hogs and poultry. It will take in feed wheat from Britain and anything else it can get its hands on that meets standard. Every time grain is tight when Wilmington arranges for foreign feed the market gets word that imports will ease our needs. Has never happened yet as far as i can determine. Not only that but the global inventories are tight. It's not just us.
You'll not get foreign corn up the Mississippi IMO as decribed. I think there's still a ship of German hi-pro wheat wandering the seas because it never arrived on our shores as stated it would in 2007. That shipment was confirmed by a 'trading insider' that stated Cargill originated the shipment. I still smile that Cargill stated 'no comment', as they had a policy against discussing their business.
Brazil fertilizes soy also
Much of their soil is so acid amendments must be used to get good yields for soy. The ferilizer stranded at sea threatens soy growing efficiency also.