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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

It is a moving target that shifts shape

This afternoon AFTER the close of markets the bid was +22 the July contract on the corn bids This morning it was +29

 

 

Now it is 59 the Sept, so ... more price erosion. The market was up 40 but the price out here in South Podunk Country was only up about 70ish% of that. 

 

Here locally they seem to think $6.50 is the most they are going to pay. Kind of a Mexican stand off in progress here.

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11 Replies
Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: It is a moving target that shifts shape

A week ago we were looking at $1.12 over at Poet in Fostoria...Today they backed off another $.15 at the close to make the basis $.55 over....$6.46 at the close. I'm thinking I'm just going to make 'em come to me...I'm really tired of their shenanigans....

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: It is a moving target that shifts shape

I'm not sure why they think farmers are going to haul them corn now.....at the same cash price as 2 weeks ago.  Their basis games aren't gonna net them any more corn.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: It is a moving target that shifts shape

This is NW Kansas ... if and when it moves east corn in the bins might appreciate in value as the crop in the field slowly diminishes

 

 

Hill City, KS 67642

 
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: It is a moving target that shifts shape

The temp forecast for western Ks & Ne have been raised AND extended.

 

FINALLY have a bid over $6.50 this morning. ($6.63) Reality must be setting in?

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: It is a moving target that shifts shape

Why would you think it's shenanigans? They bidding what they think is necessary to get corn. They may have had some deliveries and their current need might not be quite as urgent. Later that may change and they will have to bid more to secure supplies.

 

This is the real cash market at work.

 

 

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Pupdaddy
Advisor

Re: It is a moving target that shifts shape

Well maybe I should refer to it as a "dance". See, they flirt with you, wave their perfume under your nose...try to get you off of your chair and cut a rug with them. But when it gets to that critical point where they have to make a commitment to leaving the dance with you, then they blow you off, and leave you to dance with the ugly women...LOL

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clayton58
Veteran Advisor

Re: It is a moving target that shifts shape

Don is exactly right, it is the cash market at work.  so basis went down, did cash price drop?  A few days ago I did not hear anyone complain about basis increasing when futures dropped, so why wouldn't basis drop when futures takes a big hike? 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: It is a moving target that shifts shape

today ... board up 28

 

         ... cash  up 20

 

this in SC/SW Ioway, price $6.7 so it is up some

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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: It is a moving target that shifts shape

Great analogy!

 

I just think farmers have the notion that the board of trade is the real market when in fact it is a speculators market. The hard cash that your local markets will put in your pocket is the real market. Thus the futures market may be based on emotions while the cash market reflects actual supply demand locally.

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