cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

It's Been Awhile

Since I posted last.   I had to protect my bread and milk in the freezer from the "Winter Craized Zombies", and, of course, I had to protect myself from the "Airborne" threat of Ebola - which I had discounted on here for being nothing but someone attempting to spread hysteria for thier own reasons - in an attempt to move the markets.  What crap we are all fed on a daily basis.  And it continues.

 

Another cropping year is about upon us here in the US.  My travels this winter took me to Southern California for a couple of weeks, where in addition to having some excellant grapefruit from the tree at an RV park near the Salton Sea, we toured the Hoover Dam.   During our tour of the Hoover Dam, the guy giving the tour told us that the lowest the water level recorded in the reservoir since construction (Completed in 1935) was in 1956.  This year, they expect to break that record low level.  For those not in the know, the dam was constucted primarily for irrigation purposes.  Only enough water goes through the electrical generation units to provide for what is needed for the irrigation and drinking needs of Southern California.  The rest stays stored in the reservoir, which is very, very low.  There was very little snow this winter on the west side of the Rockies - the level will go lower.

 

Today finds me here in OK for one more week - teaching still at the Air Traffic Academy.  Then I will be returning home to MN for a few months, before taking our Granddaughters to Florida this year for a month.  I actually purchased yearly passes at Disney World for the four of us, and hope to use them somewhat often over the next year.

 

I got to experiance the lastest tornado that hit Moore, OK this week, as it went over the airport and where I was working with high winds and hail up to softball size.  A few of the large ones hit my car, shattering the windshild in one place and breaking it in another.  I join the ranks of the others here in OK with a golf ball looking car.  It will wait until I get back to MN.

 

Moore got hit with an F1, and it still was enough to pack a punch with many of the same areas getting hit as the F5 that hit the area in 2013.  Not as bad - still a mess and lives uprooted, again.

 

The reservoirs here in OK are low.  I wish I had a picture to show you of the marina here at Lake Hefner, where once again, the boats are high and dry, or, rather, I should say low and stuck in the mud in the bottom at the bottom of the marina.  I'm sure you could pick up some nice sailboats cheap here.

 

And no, I'm not "back" as far as my weather postings here in Ag Online.  Not everyone comes back when they leave here.  I am back to give those that read my daily posts an update.

 

I've not done a lot of study of the weather since I dropped off of here.  Some think that the semi-permanent high off the California coast will make conditions just like last year.  I have not done enough study to make any conclusions, but what I have seen and have looked at leads me to believe that this is going to be a very dry year in the Midwest.  We've had very few thunderstorms - far fewer than I feel is "normal" for spring, and with the snow that is on the ground in the midwest and Canada melting rapidly, we should go to a more summertime, rather than spingtime, pattern sooner than normal.

 

I can't leave without one article that I thought you guys might be interested in:

 

Cold Pacific Ocean is offsetting global warming

Carolyn is a staff writer for Scienceand is the editor of the In Brief section.

Where’s the heat? Greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, continue to be pumped into the atmosphere, but sometime around 1998, the rise in Earth’s average temperatures slowed, deviating from the rates predicted by models. Scientists have proposed that what some call “the pause” could be the result of a number of factors, including heat storage in deep ocean waters to unexpectedly high amounts of aerosols in the stratosphere helping deflect solar rays back into space. Now, a new study suggests that natural cycles in the Pacific Ocean are the culprit.

Since the end of last El Niño warming event of 1997 to 1998, the tropical Pacific Ocean has been in a relatively cool phase—strong enough to offset the warming created by greenhouse gas emissions. But, this is just a temporary balm: When the switch flips and the waters turn warm again, the researchers say, Earth will likely continue warming.

“What this study addresses is what’s better described as a false pause, or slowdown,” rather than a hiatus in warming, says climate scientist Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, University Park. Some climate change deniers have taken encouragement from the pause, saying they show warming predictions are flawed, but Mann, a co-author on the study, notes that “there have been various explanations for why [the slowdown is happening], none of which involve climate models being fundamentally wrong.”

One of the biggest lingering issues in the global warming slowdown is the full impact of the natural temperature cycles of Earth’s oceans. The waters of the Pacific flip back and forth between warm and cool as part of a 16- to 20-year-long cycle known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. That oscillation includes the 3- to 7-year-long warm El Niño/cold La Niña cycle. Overprinted on that is a longer term oscillation of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, a cycle that lasts perhaps 50 to 70 years. Similarly, in the Atlantic, sea surface temperatures go through a long-term natural cycle (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) that lasts about 50 to 70 years.

 

 

National Climatic Date Center/NESDIS/NOAA

 

Since the late 1990s, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has been in a cool phase.

 

In order to understand Earth’s recent temperature record, it’s essential to understand the impacts from these natural cycles, says Byron Steinman, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Minnesota’s Large Lakes Observatory in Duluth and lead author of the new study.  Previous methods haven’t perfectly isolated the impact of these cycles, Steinman says. So, along with Mann and analyst Sonya Miller, also of Pennsylvania State University, he devised a new method that mined data from the full suite of state-of-the-art simulations now available. The 45 or so models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are run by giant supercomputers around the world to simulate ocean-atmosphere interactions, and they have created about 170 “realizations” of Earth’s temperature history, which don’t precisely match one another due to the complicated climate physics involved.

“Earth’s internal climate variability is inherently random,” Steinman says. “If you went back to 1850 and repeated history”—meaning the same volcanic eruptions, the same solar variability, the same greenhouse gas emissions—“the overall temperature increase would be about the same, but you would end up with somewhat different temperature records due to the inherent randomness in the climate.”

To cancel out that randomness, Steinman and his co-authors first took the realizations created by these different supercomputers and averaged them all together. Then, they subtracted the well-known inputs attributed to human and natural drivers—greenhouse gas emissions, volcanic aerosols, solar output—from the observational record. “What’s left over should be the internal component,” Mann says, including “El Niño and La Niña, the things that come and go without any driver to make them happen.”

What Steinman and colleagues found was that both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation had a big impact on the Northern Hemisphere’s temperatures over the last century or so—but in the last couple of decades, it’s the Pacific Ocean that’s been driving the slowdown, they report online today in Science. The team identified a cooling trend in the Pacific Ocean and a very slight warming trend in the Atlantic Ocean since the late 1990s. That’s in contrast to some recent work that has suggested the Atlantic Ocean is driving the slowdown by burying the missing heat in its deep waters. The research does show natural variability in the Atlantic playing a more significant role in modulating the planet’s temperature record earlier in the last century, however.

Steinman and his team’s approach is “novel for a couple of reasons,” says Ben Booth, a climate scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter, U.K. Although it’s already widely accepted in the community that the Pacific Ocean plays a large role, this paper gives a much longer time context, he says, highlighting the role of both oceans over many decades. “That’s a very new picture.”

The study also highlights the lingering question of the planet’s sensitivity to other drivers, particularly aerosols, Booth adds. “One reason that we haven’t appreciated the role of aerosols in the climate system is that many—most—models don’t include aerosol-cloud interactions,” including only a handful of those used in IPCC’s fifth assessment report, released in 2014. But, by including all such models that now exist, this study marks “the first time anyone has estimated the ocean’s role while accounting for these processes,” he says.

Because the Pacific cooling is just one piece of an ongoing cycle, the slowdown in warming isn’t going to last, Steinman says. “It’s fair to say that over the next couple of decades, we would expect to see the trend reverse, and internal variability accelerating the warming.” Mann words it more strongly: “It’s a double-edged sword, and we’re about to see the other edge of that sword.”

 

Posted in Climate, Earth

 

Take care all, and have a safe Spring....

 

Jen

15 Replies
vrbuck
Advisor

how is percy your favorite kitty doing

did hid health turn around?

0 Kudos
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: how is percy your favorite kitty doing

I see your still pretty clueless VR.   No, but I feel pretty good right now.  I bought the yearly pass at Disney so I didn't feel I had to be rushed spending $170. a person for a daily ticket.  This way, we can go in the morning before it gets too hot, spend some time away from the park in the heat of the day, and go back and enjoy the nighttime.  I couldn't do a full day at Disney with a 7 and 10 year old.  So the passes allow us the luxury of taking our time.

 

Jen

0 Kudos
vrbuck
Advisor

but who looked after your pets while away

.......

0 Kudos
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: but who looked after your pets while away

I have 3 pets.  My two miniature Daschunds, and the new addition to our home, the "critter", a mequite lizard that I picked up out west this winter.  As far as on here, I have no "pets".  I have some "friends" if you want to call them that, that have followed what I have written over the years.  I'm not always right, but I have been mostly right over the years, especially when it comes to the more scientific side of our discussions here.  

 

If you don't like what I write, then don't read my posts.  It's that simple.  I tell things the way that I see them.  I have time to travel these days, and am not beyond going the extra mile to prove or disprove something, if that's what it takes.  

 

I am enjoying life.  Working with the students here in OK, I have the ability to change lives.  To offer them an opportunity at a career that I truely loved.  And I am grateful every day for being given the opportunity to work with these young people, and hopefully help them to meet their goals.  But I have been here for 8 of the last 9 months, and it's time for me to take a break.  

 

I know you and a few others made it their goal to get me off of here.  And you probably will again.

 

We'll see.

 

Jen

 

 

0 Kudos
vrbuck
Advisor

Your being a bit sassy Jen

I am just expressing pleasantrys and had no bones to pick.  If you think there are alternitive motives, so be it.  I just know the problems you have had and expressed some concern, knowing all the little critters you have adopted.

elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: It's Been Awhile

Well we have wonder if "leaving on a jet plane" and flew into the sunset. Glad
To things are going well.
don't be a strangers
0 Kudos
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: Basically it's a Dry, Dry, Dry SOG for a

Bunch of the USA. this Western and SW USA Drouth gettin to be old news. 

bout 15 darn years to old. MO

0 Kudos
Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: but who looked after your pets while away

Welcome back Jen, you've been missed.

0 Kudos
NCILL
Frequent Contributor

Re: It's Been Awhile

I have for one learned and appreciated your contributions to this community. Thank you Jenny and life and those grandkids, if you stop by here, I'll roll out the red carpet!

0 Kudos