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Honored Advisor

Re: It's OK,,,,, We can talk about it..

Not sure what your refering to-- I don't see the term prediction used in the quoted article or other statements made.  

 

But Steve even the humor of that thought is gone because within months of harvest, usda will declair their "projection" to be fact.

And when you research actual production three years back, or any year in the last 50 years, usda will declair those projections to be the actual production for that year....  And in this process the effect of the 2012 drought, which began in the summer of 2010 in Winter wheat country, got totally ignored as it wiped out a large % of the 2011 wheat crop...  In 2012 the drought moved into the corn belt and there was very little wheat to feed as corn prices went up, ....

Tremendous success..... USDA moderated the effect on commodity prices by the worse drought in US history

Today.... The pacific NW wheat, just off a crop failure and still in a terrible drought is being largely ignored by usda,,, but in 2011 their production was important in USDA's projections

 

Here is the goal.....

 

GrainPrices_US_farm_corn_wheat_soy_1990_2008.gif

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Senior Contributor

Re: It's OK,,,,, We can talk about it..

You guys are right....all my life i just wanted a fair price but then whats fair to me isnt to another farmer ....with inputs where they are i think a fair price would be $10 beans $6 wheat $5 corn and $20/cwt canola priced at the farm! Am i wrong?

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Honored Advisor

Re: It's OK,,,,, We can talk about it..

no your right.  Wish fairness was attainable..... But production stimulus is not part of the pricing picture either.  With usage this high limiting pricing extremes looks to be the main goal.. 

 

Not often mentioned but I think one of the best tradeoffs we get for living in a "controled" pricing environment is a pretty liberal tax policy..  since we need something to feel good about.

 

But otherwise the obvious is clear.  Over the last 40 years most small farms have failed financially, or been unable to survive the estate transfer .... usda has never given this anything but lip service and the blame goes to the suposed surpluses that farmers create......according to usda.  IMO Those surpluses, if they existed, were the result of usda policy.....

 

 

"We are from the government, we are here to help you."  Smiley Happy

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: It's OK,,,,, We can talk about it..

Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but the statistical evidence does not support this thread. The increase in prices during this 30 year cycle was the same as the last time around, except corn went 50% higher than it should have. The retracements are exactly what they would be expected to be.

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Honored Advisor

Re: It's OK,,,,, We can talk about it..

Time, can`t the old rules, old charts be thrown out the window because of exploding population growth and growing middleclass demand for food?  That grain prices rising "50% higher than it should`ve"  was a combination of oil prices rising 3 X what it should`ve, perfect storm of bad weather. 

 

$7 corn encouraged everything to be planted, rainforests and golf courses and add the world economic slowdown, this is the hangover after the party.

 

But I don`t think anyone in the world that was eating when corn was $7 have now all quit eating when corn is $3.  If our inputs all came down to match the drop in grain prices, $3 corn wouldn`t be all that bad, it`s just those that "farm the farmer" haven`t yet got the memo.

Senior Contributor

Sorry SW

That post was in repsonse to Roaringtiger.  Even when I hit reply to a person's post it just puts my repsponse way down the page instead of directly under the person I was responding to.  This is one of many things I don't like about this site compared to NAT.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Sorry SW

I totally understand ---- it is like being in a crowded room and the guy on the other side hears ya the same as the guy your whispering too...  in fact they all herd it the same........

 

 

sorry

 

Straighten me out whenever ya feel like it...Smiley Happy   I could use it

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: It's OK,,,,, We can talk about it..

Time is that adjusted to inflation or the value of the dollar......

 

Not sure the devaluation of the dollar in this 30 yr cycle is comparable to the previous 30 years

 

Just seems hard to make a comparison prior to the 96 farm bill period....

 

And I think the thread is about the effect and possible purpose of government reports...

 

Sorry If I missunderstand     but I find everything hard to compare back before the government takeover of the economy which peaked in 2008....or maybe hasn't peaked yet..

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Senior Contributor

Re: It's OK,,,,, We can talk about it..

once again there is another report that is the " most important report" of the year!! Really get tired of that crap! Another thing that gets me is the quote that " the charts have formed a double top head and shoulders line!  All i can say is WTF does that mean! That kind of logic has mystified me since i started farming. What the hell has that got to do with supply and demand! Kind of sad that there are people who have live off the sweat and worry of others.... At least i know im working for the common good of all by producing food not by being a leech

Senior Contributor

Re: It's OK,,,,, We can talk about it..

I have always thought the same thing.  I understand fundamentals.   Technicals make no sense to me.

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