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Senior Advisor

Just publish ......

...... the firms sales plan against the market year's average prices, and highs and lows, for the last 5 years.


Perhaps find the ranking of your firm vs other firms. They are published by some university I believe.

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Senior Contributor

Re: A casino is a business too,

perhaps keep in mind that 2009 is NOT 2013.


Total Aggregated currencies, lifestyles and govt styles,  thus demand function structures have advanced exponentially since 2009.


irregardless, the current weather is taking 1 to 2 bu per day OFF the final yield now.

( since there is no good estimate of the crop anyway, that may or may not matter ).


Paper markets are paper markets ( thus the casino so to speak ).


CASH markets are the real deal and the KING so to speak.


Conservatively the cornbelt is in a Big Dry weather cycle ( perhaps ending in 2016 thru 2017 ).


2013 is the wet break year which fall in between the real dry ones ( like 2012 was ).


10 to 20% more average crop now vs 2012 total corn would be a Good deal and conservatively expected in this weather cycle.

( 15% more average btw, is the middle of the afore )


A total corn crop assumption in the 12 to 12.5, ( maybe even 12.7 ) range is more likely than a supposed record crop this year. MO.


On beans, yield estimates this year are crazy high as compared to the average planting date of the beans.


40+ bu average????? 


Realistically, 30 to 35 bu average in 2013 would be Wonderfull.


Keep in mind, beans did not suffer the big dry effect hit in 2012 like corn did.

( it's an Every Other Year Deal, that simple ).





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Re: It's a business..Not a casino!

chace-you and rsw need to get on skype and let the rest of us work for a living

Honored Advisor

Re: A casino is a business too,


Just an excellent post Rightone, just excellent. Apparently Chad isn't old enough to learn how to read rainfall accum maps. If he survives long enough, he will learn that his gambling comparisons really offend those of us that raise and market a crop for a living.


Besides, if it takes 2000 words to make a point, it is a pretty poorly thought out article. jmo

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Veteran Advisor

Re: A casino is a business too,

lets see who guesses the to WHICH 3 analogue year best matches 2013??? -- for beans


btw, right,  I believe we are headed below 12 maybe 11.5 on corn -- right on the $$$ for beans.


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