perhaps keep in mind that 2009 is NOT 2013.
Total Aggregated currencies, lifestyles and govt styles, thus demand function structures have advanced exponentially since 2009.
irregardless, the current weather is taking 1 to 2 bu per day OFF the final yield now.
( since there is no good estimate of the crop anyway, that may or may not matter ).
Paper markets are paper markets ( thus the casino so to speak ).
CASH markets are the real deal and the KING so to speak.
Conservatively the cornbelt is in a Big Dry weather cycle ( perhaps ending in 2016 thru 2017 ).
2013 is the wet break year which fall in between the real dry ones ( like 2012 was ).
10 to 20% more average crop now vs 2012 total corn would be a Good deal and conservatively expected in this weather cycle.
( 15% more average btw, is the middle of the afore )
A total corn crop assumption in the 12 to 12.5, ( maybe even 12.7 ) range is more likely than a supposed record crop this year. MO.
On beans, yield estimates this year are crazy high as compared to the average planting date of the beans.
40+ bu average?????
Realistically, 30 to 35 bu average in 2013 would be Wonderfull.
Keep in mind, beans did not suffer the big dry effect hit in 2012 like corn did.
( it's an Every Other Year Deal, that simple ).
