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Honored Advisor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

Prevent plant acres because of incesent rain is Trump's fault?

 

It is Trump's fault we don't have more. Guys chasing MFP money kept planters running in corn till July  here.

Anybody that can't profit on a 75% prevent ck has a flawed business plan. That late corn legally only has a 60% guaranty. In this county $58  is the pmt and only $29 is payable at this time.

A great Christmas present for some would be a new box of pencils and a sharpener to go woth them.

Advisor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

Bush Jr. was an unmitigated moron....oh, in so many, uncountable ways.

Don't even get me started on the Clintons (higher taxes, signing NAFTA (which ironically enough began with George Bush Sr. and his cronies -- no wonder it sucked).  Clintons giving banks free rein to enslave future generations who had to choose between no college degree or no prosperity when they made student debt non-dischargeable in bankruptcy, etc., etc.  Even Clinton agreed he raised taxes too much during his first term, so he then lowered taxes so he could be reelected, giving way to those prosperous years you are referring to. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/charleskadlec/2012/07/16/the-dangerous-myth-about-the-bill-clinton-tax-...

Prosperity is almost always about taxes, and with a few exceptions, almost all the current Dems dreaming of becoming POTUS have said they will raise taxes across the board when elected.  Will you be able to afford those high taxes? 

The booming Obama farm years were because of the global problems with lack of food resources; hence, the rise in food prices.

But think about it:  You are witnessing the smallest harvest in many memories (if not all living memory) and a whole nation of livestock to feed this coming year.  Nothing can help the ethanol if corn becomes too expensive to process.

We are Independent voters (I even once wrote in "Mickey Mouse" when none of the candidates from any side were worth a lick) who try to vote for the best candidate irregardless of political party. 

I see many, many things wrong with President Trump's, shall we say, style (a bull in a china shop comes to mind), but damn, 99.9% of those Dems running for president are off their rockers.   They are trying to do away with natural gas as a heating source, for Pete's sake!!  Name one who you would vote for with 100% certainty that all would become right with America. 

The problem, seriously, is all the people in GOVERNMENT who have infected it with their greedy, self-absorbed, "I'm a living god" ways (how the heck can they get better insurance than all the rest of America who hired them??!!??).

Yes, personally, we have been both blessed and lucky because we follow cycles and not trends.  We are currently following the cooling cycle -- spent the last few years transitioning our acres to short-season/cold-tolerating crops (including that $40/bushel crop I spoke of).

 

Honored Advisor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

Rsbs,  very true.  Winters realities will be good also.  

“If you need usda and university research to know how to farm, your 5-10 years behind your neighbors.”   Imo same applies to knowing your financial position.  Usda data is way too scared of being wrong to be right. 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

Well a president never hesitates to take advantage of the good that comes along. So he deserves the blame too and seldom does enough to deserve either.

I think it’s comical to read a note from a farmer calling an elected president ignorant.  It’s always wrong and comes from a source that’s farming.... an expert on the subject.  Smiley Happy  

and   Ever note how farmers blame leadership for every problem, yet expect the administration to fix every problem.

farmers need to stop complaining.   They keep working for themselves, then complain they don’t make enough.  So maybe they need to stop trying to be better farmers and try to be better employers.  

Ya all need a little will rogers today   I’ve never seen a perfect president.  But it’s refreshing to have one that seems to like the country that employs him.

 

Honored Advisor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

With farmers planting corn instead of going prevent plant, I kind of understand it even without the "Trump money".  Because with PP, I think you get 60% of your spring guarantee, now if you drag your planter through the mud by June 15th (and you could lie a little on that date...I wouldn`t but the 18th could be called the 15th with little risk) well you`d get 85% of the fall or spring guarantee which ever is greater.  Plus, if you recall the market mood last June was "$6 corn here we come!!!"...so the potential of 85% of $6 corn fall price on 180bu/acre APH?????    See, that`s the cattle prod that kept planters rollin`.  The USMC payment was just whip cream on top.  Hindsight being 20/20, maybe taking the PP spring guarantee wouldn`t have been  as bad of choice. As always IMO

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

wrong, 

Here in southern Iowa from June first to June 15th you lose 15% of that coverage.

With the pp buy up that leaves 10% to pay fert, seed, harvest expense, extra drying... "do you feel lucky"

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Honored Advisor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

Well, let`s walk through it: say you have a 200aph and the spring price was $3.50 and you have 85% coverage that`s a $595 revenue guarantee.  So you take prevent plant which is 60%...so for each acre you get $357 and they wash their hands of you and you take the $357 and go fishing.

Okay, if you pull the planter through the mud with $100/bag Epley seed on the 15th of June after the 15% ding on your guarantee the very least you can get is $505.75/acre. But your potential is wide open, if corn goes to $5 this fall you could have $700/acre in guarantees .  If corn drops below the spring price of $3.50 you`ll still get the $3.50 guarantee from spring, that`s the worse you could do.   

So basically could you have pulled a planter through the mud on June 15th for $150/acre in expense?  40 bucks in seed (maybe free year old seed at that late date) and 50 bucks in nitrogen.  I think by pulling the planter through the mud, you could eek out $30/ better than going prevent plant, plus your "cover crop" is already taken care of.   And if there`s a September freeze and the crop adjuster zeros it out, you wouldn`t even have to bother going through the motions of pretending to harvest it. 

But, at any rate we won`t know for sure until the end of October which choice was the most money in the pocket.   But the prevent plant is already finished  it`s race.

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Senior Contributor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

You guys in Iowa get 60% for PP?  BA. in your example where was your risk calculation for drying very wet corn and if I'm doing this a lot are so corn isn't going up for quite some time because USDA says this is all great corn?Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

I had to look, Gurly I guess it`s 55% on corn and 60% on beans..that`s even worse than I thought.  I do recall hearing they lowered payments because some were taking advantage of PP.   But 55% I do believe I`d one way or another get planter tracks out there by 6/15 rather than forced into PP.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2019/05/prevented-planting-2019-market-facilitation-program-paymen...

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Veteran Advisor

Re: It`s not so bad down on the Farm

Just  shoot  for,   and  raise  400  bushel  corn ,  wala ,  troubles  over  -   -   -

And  there  will  be  plenty  of  adviser$  there  to  help  you  out   of,  and  through  those  yield  barriers  -  -  -

Farm  show  in  Grand  Island  Nebraska,  going  on  now  -  -  -

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