cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: It's time for a global grain reserve

so, to make this clear(er)? are you prophesying of a coming major and we mean MAJOR famine much akin to the one in Genesis you pasted? 

 

 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: It's time for a global grain reserve

I'd give a thumbs up in support of this idea. Good thoughtful post/thread  Palouser

 

Planning is one of the first functions of managment. If we are good stewards and managers of our resources  that serves our clients (consumers), we ought to be planning for different consequences in a forward thinking way that is manageable. Let the discussion continue!

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: It's time for a global grain reserve

Good posts and arguments, but we have been there before and it really didn't work very well. Hobby farmer rebuts the argument pretty well, we have wrung the excess stocks of corn out of the equation through ethanol conversions, and can always put them back in if we want grain to be cheap again.

 

Personally, I kind of enjoy making money for a change not sure about the rest of you.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: It's time for a global grain reserve

I'm not prophesying anything. I'm making the reasonable observation that we are in a 'danger zone' matching supply and demand based on the idea of 'Normal Production Variation'. The 2007-8 market upheaval was based mainly on wheat. It could be much worse if the issue involved feed grains in addition. Wheat is being diverted for feed now so the connection to broader global problems is there. It would take an idiot to think you can 'prophesy' whether the next flip is going to be heads or tails (weather?) however, it takes the same kind of illogic to think that it can't be heads for the next 10 tosses, or that it's impossible to have three in a row of the same outcome. 

 

But, I fail to see your point. I don't have a lot of patience for using extreme examples and ideology to avoid thinking logically about the issue of reserves and go on to demonstrate one hasn't even read what I've stated.

 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: It's time for a global grain reserve

You're taking my thoughts out of context. Price leveling is not the goal. Availability is the goal. A reserve may reduce the likelihood of the market from going parabolic and freezing up - and for the most part the farmer doesn't make much money when that happens anyway. The idea is to have food when it's needed in exrtreme circumstances. I'm not sure the idea that extreme market volatility makes farmers money in necessarily true. Look at the fall out from 2007-8. A farmer may make more money in the longer term if complete panic by buyers is avoided by allowing countries to feed their people in extremity. That's probably an area that needs more research to clarify.

 

And I assume you get government payments already. You're covered.

 

 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: It's time for a global grain reserve

The problem is that so many deem a food surplus a liability instead of the asset it is. A liability in that it's very presence is price diminishing.  I don't believe that few billions of bushels in surplus would be a bad thing if it was bought and held off the market and only released in case of a food catastrophe.

 

Now you wouldn't want stale inventory hanging around for years but it could be consumed after  it was replaced by new crop production. There are those survivalists that hoard food products in preperation for hard times

. It only makes sense that it should be done by national and international governmental bodies in the interest of their own people.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: It's time for a global grain reserve

I believe you are correct. The former grain Reserve had a set policy and a procedure for release.

 

Grain given to the government as a forfeit to satisfy a loan WAS a weight hanging over the market because the government could and did sell at any time they wanted, and they got a LOT of it because the policies were flawed. But, that was not the 5 Year Reserve. The policies responsible for forcing the Govt to buy grain from farmers at a price higher than the market are no longer with us.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: It's time for a global grain reserve

With all due respect you can not put them back in if we were not able toraise enought for what ever reason ,some day that may be the case. I think Paulster makes a lot of valid points and I personaly am in favor of having grain on hand to last this country for many months , the market does not have access to.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: It's time for a global grain reserve

These reserves would probably just be a big target for terrorism.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Hahaha!

I'm giving you 10/10 points for creative thinking!