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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Jan 12th Super Bowl/Daytona for us

Report more like Daytona as it will determine our start positions the rest of the season.  Better get those options in place.  We could have a negative report and the price rallies or a positive report and the price fizzles  and anything in between. 

JMO but these yield reports have a lot of irrational exuberance, the "calibrated" yield monitors and the honor system of farmer reports are always going to be a little on the high side.    Just like my weigh is a little less on my bathroom scale ...the danged doctor`s scale isn`t accurate   🙂   And if you measure your height in the morning, you`re 1/2" taller.    But if data is consistently  inconsistent.   

There was a salebarn that needed a washer on the end of the scale beam to get it to balance, I just wonder how many washers that USDA WASDE will use on their scale beam?    🙂

https://www.andersonsgrain.com/market-commentary/market-videos/closing-comments/ 

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4 Replies
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Jan 12th Super Bowl/Daytona for us

Anticipating  those  $30    /   $29.45  sales  ( O.55  harvest  pressure  bases) ,  bean  talk  from  a  while  back   -  -  -

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Jan 12th Super Bowl/Daytona for us

No one listens anymore or they are "Norwegian" and hear only what they want to hear   🙂   Whether a former president says "I`m so popular they (NY Times) say I could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose support" which turns into "I can shoot anyone and git away with it!!!  And by the way inject bleeeeech into your veins!!!" .    Sue Martin says "beans could hit $30 if -------   , ----------- and if -------------"   No one wants to LISTEN to the qualifications that it would TAKE for $30 beans, not even me.   

They all say "Where`s Sue`s $30 beans????"  for one thing we are only in the 7th inning on the journey towards "$30 beans" .   However, when are the Bad News Bears who suckered farmers into contracting $9 beans and if you had extras to sell scared you into selling just before a $2 rally, when are they going to be held accountable?   That`s one of the perks of being a Bear, memories are short and you go right back to selling the same fear for the next crop. 

Sure, if you listened to Sue and have 100% of 2021 beans and are now a doubting Thomas ... Merry Christmas dude!  Open up the sump and hit the auger switch and haul $14 beans to town.   Probably a top 5% marketer in your neighborhood.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Jan 12th Super Bowl/Daytona for us

I think it will be a two day or less report market.

Too much old out dated info baked into the report.

About a week of 100°heat with no moisture in a large part of south central S.A. going on right now.

This assumes old higher production projections out of South America baked into the report which is fading fast.

My opinion only.

 

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

 

 

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Jan 12th Super Bowl/Daytona for us

Joe Vaclavik says weather market down south probably isn`t over.  StoneX Brazil is at 134, USDA 144 and some are saying damage is irreversible.    

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztJVVGjjm4k  

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