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dairyfarmmn
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Calling me a fraud? So now who is attacking who? But you are free to believe what you want. But I am a 4th generation dairy farmer. I never attacked corn farmers but I also do not feel sorry for them for one year of bad prices. All I have heard crop farmers say the past 2 years is that if you can't make money milking sell the cows. Or it's not their problem livestock guys can't make money, if they can't make money they better get out. A comment was made that end users were NOT concerned about farmers making money..... I just asked WHY should they be?  So now the knife cuts the other way and crop farmers are going to more than likely have a more difficult year. Welcome to the club livestock farmers have been in it for awhile now.

 

So did you complain about the pricing mechanism last year? Cause the same pricing mechanism that brought $6-7 corn is now bringing $4 corn. Only difference between last year and this year is that this year deamnd has already been killed. Last year at this time demand still needed to be killed and that's what held prices higher. I really don't have a problem with milk being traded on  the CME, over the last 14 years, at times I have made some pretty good coin from milk being on the CME.

 

I'm really disappointed to hear you don't eat hamburger at a bar. Suppose you never been to King's then, eh? I'm sure you go across the street and eat at Weiderholt's instead. Now I put the Westwind comment in there just to show you I'm in the area. You probably wouldn't find the Westwind on the internet anywhere since it closed before the internet really became big, so that might be a clue. But you know what I never really like the place, they never had real chocolate milk. They just used white milk and added hersey's syrup to it. I remember when it was on the corner of 19 and 52. Then it moved to the corner of 24 and 52. Then became a motel. Oh and the Cannonball isn't a gas station amymore. I heard they are or are going to take the pumps out.

 

The JD dealer in Cannon is just a little dealer but I do like them, in fact I have a tractor getting worked on there now. And no one really has new equipment on the lot anymore. Pretty much everything has to be ordered. But when you are feeling better drive down to SEMA in Wanamingo. You will see a TON of late modeled machinery there. So don't try and tell me there isn't much new equipment sold. Oh and no I have not been to any of Maring or Houghton's consignment auctions. I figure that equipment is on an auction for a reason.

 

 

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Farmerjoe79
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Jeez the way you sounded before you were going broke now I don't fell so bad for you that you made pretty good coin from milking. 14 years of making good money it has only been 4 for me.
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dairyfarmmn
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Never said I made money for 14 years. Just said at certain times I have made some pretty good coin from milk being on the CME. The last 5 years not so much, haven't all been bad, but haven't all been great either.

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Jen AM Weather

There you go. Now I believe you. I also dairy farmed. It's the farm I lost in 81 dairy farming and was able to buy back in 87. I know how hard dairy farming is. Which is why I don't want a repeat of what we saw he last couple of years. It's not the crop farmers that hurt you - it was the futures traders. It was the weather. But it wasn't the crop farmers. You're maybe new to the site. My contention all along is that these huge spikes in our markets are market killers that are benefitting a few. Your beef is not with me, other than I did not trust what you were saying based on just that - what you were saying.

I can tell you this. You will not see 3.00 corn for a long time. I would say again, but then look at our interest rates. I'd have bet anything we would never see depression era rates, but here we are. I don't believe you'll see 4.00 corn. $4.50 maybe, but I doubt it. If your young like you say, I excuse you for some of your lack of knowledge. Maybe you do we'll on the dairy market in Chicago. I'm glad for you. I know others who have not been so charmed. The price in Chicago for corn is wrong, because it has nothing built into it in the event that it is wrong, and there is only going to be 11bbl out there. Other years, we always heard of some weather premium. This year, nothing. If this crop is short, don't blame us crop farmers. It's not us that set the price of our grain. Blame the traders that look at a chart or believe a stinking report and trade it to the hilt. And blame yourself when you could've bought cheap, like now, and were warned.

Jen
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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Jen AM Weather

And I didn't just now say I think we only have 11bbl - if we frost, we may. Fact is trade is still trading 14bbl with no weather premium. You tell me what happens when not much more rain falls this growing season and we freeze.

Jen
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dairyfarmmn
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Well in 2011 we went from 7/21 to 12/21 without any rain. We had frost around 9/15, granted it wasn't a all out freeze but a frost. And guess what, the corn made it to maturity. Now granted we were a couple of weeks ahead of now, looking at my planting records my corn was planted 5/13-5/18 in 2011. This year 5/29 to 6/3. Sure I planted some on 6/11 but never expected that to make grain anyway..... So it is hard to sit here and say we are in trouble. Life is too short to worry about something that may or may not happen in 30 days.

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dairyfarmmn
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Where did I say I blamed crop farmers for anything? Or you specifically. I would contend you have thrown more insults at me than I at you or other crop farmers. All I said was, I don't feel too sorry for crop farmers for having potentially one bad year when the last 4 years have been really good. Look around at all the new iron and new shops. That's all I said. How is that having a beef with crop farmers? And all I asked was, why should end users be concerned if crop farmers make money. No one has yet to answer that one. Or why must markets only go up..... you replied somewhat to it that the markets are manipulated and that CME has the price of corn wrong. but I'm not sure how CME has the price of corn wrong. If it's wrong, then local basis will correct the price locally. It is to easy to look out your own window and think the rest of the country must be the same way...... 11 bbl. I still think it will be considerably more than that,

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Dman ck your Personal message box.

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dairyfarmmn
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Done. Hobbyfarmer.

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Let me deal with one question at a time. Why must markets only go up? They don't but they should reflect reality. I'm not going over all the why I believe this market is wrong thing. Everyone else knows but you. By not reflecting reality and "building in" a potential problem with a market, creates a market which is artificially low. Like I feel we have now I'm corn and beans. There is not enough built into this market now to curtail supply in the event the weather does not cooperate. This market we have been in assumes everything is fine and dandy, no - it assumes its great. If all of a sudden it's not, and it explodes. All those that bought into the rhetoric that its great get burned, and a few in the know make big bucks. I'm wanting the market to go up to curtail demand to prevent the huge spike. That is all. But right now, for that reason, the market is wrong. It's not just the frost that can trigger this. And I'm glad you have great crops. But you don't need to go far off 52 either east or west to find devastation. Maybe you should look at that and think about what I'm saying.

Jen
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