cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
dairyfarmmn
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Who says the markets are dealing reality? The reality is, is that demand was destroyed. End users found alternatives either it being other products or other sources of corn. That deamnd was stripped away and it will take time for it to come back. A lot of dairies now are feeding DeLac, much of which can be bought for little or nothing, to replace corn. Lots of other feeds where fed to replace corn. E plants went off line, feedlots fed other things....... do you think that maybe that had something to do with demand? There has been significant demand destruction, that is part of the reason we have corn as low as it is. In time $4 will bring that demand back, but some has been lost for a long time. So the market is maybe more realistic than you believe.

 

Sure there are trouble spots just east or west of 52. But there is dang good corn in other parts of the country. And the added acres in other states will pick up some of the slack. I wouldn't be sure so on the $3 corn. Why just last year everyone said we would never see corn with a $4 in front of it again.

0 Kudos
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Dairyfarmmn man. Why should end users care if crop farmers make money? Why do end users care if any company stays in business? How would you like it if your vet went broke, and the nearest vet now is a dog vet down in Rochster, and can't get to you for four hours because he's swamped with other calls? Not the same - try this. Land comes up for sale next to you, was a family farm, and now is bought by a company with an out of the country owner. You used to buy corn from the family farmer, they used to let you cut dead trees out of the woods for firewood. New owner cares not to do business with you because you can't buy and pay for your years needs at harvest. And then he buys out the next farmer, and the next farmer, and suddenly your an island onto yourself. Each and every business failure has repercussions that maybe you can't see, but someone got effected. Crop farmers did.....not.....set....the.....price......of......their.....crop. You have no beef with them. If you feel ethanol is to blame, go bomb the local plant. Bitch to congress. But don't blame us for you not making money. Why not tell the boys in Chicago that's helping you make money that you milk price is too low. I'm sure they care, about as much as me saying corn and beans are too low. You're young, maybe try and do something with your life and try to solve these marketing dilemmas. Did we answer all your questions?

Jen.
0 Kudos
booked
Veteran Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Here is a guy I watch ever morning he does address the fox thing and so do his commenter's.

 

The comments happen at about the 3 minute mark.

0 Kudos
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Jen AM Weather

Yes, dairyfarm man, I'm sure about the 3.00 corn. And you need to once again do more study on the demand issues thing. Most of the e plants are up and running. There are still lots of hogs, cows, and poultry in the US, and our exports are not all that bad. We have essentially no pipeline corn left. Or beans. So we have used everything we have produced one way or the other and are importing to meet some localized demand. A 14bbl crop would be a bit burdomsom. We don't have that. At 12.5 we are still using essentially everything we produce. At 11bbl, we go back to severe rationing. Pick your level. If you think we have 14bbl, that's great. I would be waiting for corn to drop at harvest. But you'll be waiting a long time. And don't say you weren't warned and come back here crying about how high priced corn is. Corn offers not just good value here, but exceptional value. If you don't think so, that's your choice.

Jen
0 Kudos
dairyfarmmn
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

I still see corn bring hauled all over the place. Local feed mill still had corn. Talked to the head grain guy, he told me they have plenty of corn. Hardly sounds like the pipeline being empty. Is corn tight, yeah but it always is this time of year. But here's the deal. When corn got high end users made adjustments, found other things to feed, different ways of doing things. Those changes will stick. Demand has been destroyed. Has enough? I don't know, time will tell. But I don't remember a time where demand was killed off extremely early. Demand will be killed after harvest if it so needs.
0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Jean AM Weather

DMan you are in one of only a couple of spots in the whole country that still has supplies readily available.

 

Down here in South Podunk Country that isn't the case.

 

15 cents increase 9 miles from here on corn basis.

 

45 cents increase at Cargill - Eddyville (100) miles east of here.

 

This was just yesterday

 

Afflotoxion problems in Eastern Nebraska where up to 30% of the loads are still being rejected.

 

Columbus and Blair Nebraska are probably going to be the hot bids till harvest.

 

Many of the E plants were very aggressive or can idle for a short time.

 

The sweetener plants top corporate mucky mucks in the home offices may have bought into the cheaper late summer big crop idea's. Not working out so good at those facilities. Most of those have contracts to fill every week or monthly at the longest. No corn in the bins at those plants are really not an option. Some of those plants need 10,000 bu an hour (some a little more) . My two caffinated sodas a day may be in jeopardy, not a happy thought.

 

Then there are the buffalo wing and bacon producers. They can't just post a notice on the wall and postpone feeding time 30 days either.

 

This is the first day of August this year 60 days from any significat harvest around here, some much longer. BTW need rain.

 

 

0 Kudos
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Jen AM Weather

The export sales today tells the story. The world know value. They're buying. If you need extra corn for this year, I'd get it bought. And beans or meal for that matter.


Jen
0 Kudos
dairyfarmmn
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

If the pipeline is empty where they getting the corn to export. I realize these are sales and not loadings but still. If corn is priced to low, why are people/companies selling? Why would Cargill/ADM/Bunge sell corn at these levels if it is to cheap and we are going to have a short crop?

Hobby, you would be better off quitting the soda anyway. Now am I the only one who realizes that HFCS can be replaced with other sweeteners? Do we not think that the soda companies have not been working on different things? As end users They will use what is most economical to them and they have every right to do that..... We no regards to if farmers are making money or not. $7 corn has cast farmers in a bad light as being rich govt teat sucking to robber Barron's.
0 Kudos
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Jen AM Weather

How many government dairy programs have there been over the years?         Smiley Wink

0 Kudos
dairyfarmmn
Senior Contributor

Re: Jen AM Weather

About as many as Gov't grain programs.

And if you noticed I didn't single out any particular commodity group or producers or farmers.

0 Kudos