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Jen

the moisture off the TD in the gulf moving up into the ECB is kind of a big deal.

 

Any thoughts on current guidance?

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6 Replies
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Jen

I'll take a peak at it when I stop for lunch. I'm trying to get my garden weeded before it rains - again.

I've been spending my time down in the gutter with a poster that has raised my ire. Sorry I haven't been up here where I should be.

Jen
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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Jen

A quick and dirty look at the weather.

 

The gulf is open, allowing a fair amount of moisture into the ECB this coming weekend.  Also, the jet stream is favorable for thunderstorm development.  The clinker in the whole thing, though, is the low pressure system that comes through the ECB over this coming weekend is quite weak, at least right now.

 

Thursday, the 11th all the way through the following Monday, the 15th, is going to give chances for rain.  Heat, humidity, lifting action from both the Low pressure system and the jet stream, should combine to give a fair drink over the entire ECB.  How much? The 5-7 day pricip forecasts are showing more than 5 inches in much of OH.  I think that is a bit overly optimistic, although there could be some locally heavy amounts if you got under the right thunderstorm that stays on top of you.  I suspect that  1 - 2 inches is probably going to be the norm though.  It should make a dent in the severely dry areas of the ECB.  To put it another way, you would have to be extremely unlucky to not pick up any rain from this event in the ECB.  But this event is still days away.  I will try and look at it closer as the week goes on.

 

Overall, I think the weather service with the long range prognostications have done a good job this year.  Much better than a few years ago.  The talking heads on TV on the weekend - I don't know - I haven't watched them in quite a while.

 

Hope this helps....

 

Jen 

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Jen

Jen,  Most of us in NW Ohio,  have been extremely unlucky all summer long when it comes to getting some beneficial rains.   Many areas are 5-7 " below normal for the summer.   We really would like to not get caught up in one day.   But at this point, we'll take what we can get.

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: Jen

Yeah, I know you guys over there have been dry.  This weekend should offer most at least a bit of relief.

 

Here in SE MN, we have like the perfect year going on.  We were a bit dry early, but since the middle of June, we have had pretty close to perfect growing conditions.  

 

I was out looking at a bean field last night, but got chased out by the mosquitoes before I was able to get a picture for you guys.  Maybe I'll wander down there this afternoon after I get my strawberries finished weeding.

 

Our sweetcorn has been GREAT!!!  Wish you all could be hare for a meal to experience it.  It was the one thing that I really missed when we had to spend our summers in OKC.

 

Many of the sweetcorn stands around here are selling corn that, for me, is far too ripe.  It's about ready for cribbing...

 

Jen

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Re: Jen

Thanks Jen.

 

C., NC IN is not fairing too bad but would certainly benefit from any sort of shower. Looks to be on the border of the better coverage in the QPFs.

 

As you get farther east and particularly into Ohio they really need it and I think it would still probably help most beans more than they want to admit, probably stabilize corn some.

 

So I was actually thinking more along the lines of the macro but would certainly be pleased with even a half inch. Upwards of an inch would probably come close to clinching it.

 

As for the WCB, I've seen several years where the soil moisture anomaly merely went from surplus to neutral through August and even though it produced nothing approaching a meteorolgical drought, beans, particularly later maturing ones, were disappointing.

 

So still a lot of yield in play there as well.

 

Rule of thumb- if you're mowing the lawn once a week in mid-august you're going to have a good bean crop.

 

I once had 3 Augusts in a row where I only mowed once and that was to knock down the buckhorn.

But you know what- there are worse businesses to be in in those circumstances- a friend of mine had a good lawn equipment sales business and that broke him. At least we got something- his business, even the shop, just died, even through the winters.

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Re: Jen

Morning runs juice it up a bit, push the coverage a tad farther west.

 

We'll see.

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