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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

John Roach M to M Bullish

Sounds like endusers will have trouble stealing the 2021 crop like they did last year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTZ8CB4HiWo

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7 Replies
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: John Roach M to M Bullish

BA - Was  the   Mike S. (export  terminal )  comments bearish,  or  John  R.  buy  signal  comments,   the  most  valuable  on  the  show - ?  The  beginning  portion  of  the  show  was  market  negative , while  the  ending   comments  being  bullish ,  which  one  do  we  pick - ? 

What  are  the  drought  conditions  comments  coming  from  Montana  on  the  beef  side , neutral , bullish , bearish  for  beef  &  the  corn  market   - ? 

    

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: John Roach M to M Bullish

Hey K-289, I think this whole hurricane deal is a red herring....oh yeah yeah yeah I know it`s terrible yada yada.  But if a tree falls on your auger and grain bin, are you out of commission for 6 months with no ability to haul your grain to town?  no, you improvise and get-R-done.  Get the cutting torch out...take some 0xy from a Covid patient if nothing else and cut a hole in the bin and get the scoop shovels out.   No, the endusers play hurricanes like a Stradivarius, they can move grain it`s their job, it`s no surprise hurricanes hit the Gulf coast every year.

Well USDA raised acres in the lower yielding western drought areas and took away acres from the cocky eastern cornbelt.   Beeves are a funny thing, if packers pay up, the fewer head will be fed to 1500lbs and there`s your extra beef to make the numbers work.   I grill 12 months out of the year, but many put the grill away after Labor Day. 

wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: John Roach M to M Bullish

Good Post there BA Deere. 

Thank You. 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: John Roach M to M Bullish

I  70   south  has  9+  months  of  grill  weather ,  although  with  the  $900.oo  packer  margins  ,  beef  might  be ''' what's  NOT  for  dinner '''  on  the  retail  end  -  -  -

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dwillinois
Senior Contributor

Re: John Roach M to M Bullish

Tar spot is so far being a real problem in central Illinois early yields are from 180 to low 200's @19% moisture

This is high aph ground that should be pumping records out,  and I know its north of me in Mclean co, it really started showing its damage about 2 weeks ago test weights are down as well not sure if it all will all be affected the same way but its a real kick in the you know what.

I'm not saying this is a market game changer but this is our reality here at the moment. Good luck to all this harvest and stay safe!

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: John Roach M to M Bullish

Nicole Stecklein is also finding tar spot in NE Iowa.  There is a band of flat corn in that Waverly, Iowa area from a wind that went through couple weeks ago.  Seems to me "Corn Warriors" are worried about phantom yield loss and starting picking around 27% moisture to gain 10 more bushel, only to give it right back to the LP man is a false economy.  USDA and private gurus have a national yield range of 173 - 177...tar spot and phantom yield loss could easily drive this yield below 170.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlG6QZxRjSM   

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: John Roach M to M Bullish

Some pretty knowing folks been saying bout 168 national for a while now. 

I suppose it could take a year or  5  to get this tar spot stuff to remiss. 

Darn stuff is genetic suspect weakness. 

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