John Roach on M2M, says beans ain`t high enough!

[Red Steele]

An elevator manager back in the 80's told me two gems of advice that I have never forgotten.

One was that "Cash is King"...this one manifests itself all over, in many guises, but the guy

that can manage his affairs and be his own banker at whatever scale of activity, is never

going to go broke or get forced to sell at inopportune times.

The second gem was "The trend is your friend". If markets are going up, don't fight them...let

them roll. Anyone that sold into this soybean rally would have been better served waiting for the

first hard down crash, and selling on the bounce than taking what price they took. Follow the

trend until it breaks, and then try to be an early seller. Maybe $10.50 is where it runs out, maybe

its $12, maybe its $15......none of us knows. I do know that SUV's priced at $70,000 make a

bushel of soybeans at $10 look dirt cheap.

And the big money players obviously know that $43 oil is still a steal. I know someone with

mineral rights in Oklahoma, and the offers per mineral acre have been steadily going up from

$1000 per acre, to over $8000 in short order. Someone knows something, irregardless of

"cheap" oil.

Never try to pretend that you are smarter than the market. That kind of hubris has broken many

a man.

My two cents.

[Hobbyfarmer]

I nominate hardnox for inclusion on the market to market Fri night analyst parade.

[sw363535]

And the blame farmers for trying to drive the market up?????  

Like Ray Jenkins says, farmers give you the most honest information..........

This Mr. Roach is just chearing for volatility..... and frankly we deserve about 5 months of wind the other direction...  Hope he's got the lungs for it.

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Elevator managers trade like merchandisers, not like producers.  When listing to people give marketing advise, it's wise to remember the old Indian "what people see depends on where they stand".

[Red Steele]

True enough, Jim, about the version of "where you stand, depends on where you sit", but

this guy was a friend, older and at retirement age, and not a "company man" if you know

what I mean. He honestly cared about the young farmers and wasn't out to fleece anyone.

Guys like him got replaced by the next generation that advises "sell, sell, sell" whenever

someone asks for advice, and the same managers have used debt in many cases to run

their formerly debt free coops into the ground, where the average coop is always trying

to merge for more "efficiencies." Meanwhile the discounts and savings to patrons have

evaporated. Some efficiency, right?

[BA Deere]

An old small elevator manager can give you steady hand advice during violatility and that can be priceless.  The thing is, a elevator if run properly off-sets the coop`s risk when they buy you bushels on the board, they want the volume of your business and don`t want you going to another elevator or E-plant.  You sell them your bushels and they get their basis cut and when they sell it as feed or whatever get their cut on that end.  

I guess, take your grain to Gavilon, they`ll dicker on their basis  😉

But this latest bean run up, caught grain merchandisers off guard, a guy who`s wife works as a merchaniser was tasked with marketing her husband`s beans and she sold a ways before the top..."S.O.B !" he says 🙂 but she couldn`t help it, who knows exactly how high it goes or when the rug gets pulled.

Those of us tighwads that glean all the free advice off the radio and shows like Market to Market.  You know, that can be a bad thing too.  Because we start with a plan..maybe a pretty good plan and then we turn on the radio and Bob Utterback is on saying how it`s "going to heck in a handbasket!!" well, it freaks us out and we crumple up our good discipled plan and follow big Bob`s advice.

You have to follow a good plan...but you also have to know when to turn that rudder too when conditions change and that`s the tough part.