Just Thinking Out Loud

[ECIN]

This is a problem I have sometimes , must have been born with it , lol But around here , almost all the elevators are offering FREE Dp till Sept./13 , with almost no carry to CH , most are a nickel . They are also telling farmers to think about bining it = alfa growing in the bins in time . One guy at the elevator told me they Don't want us bining it ! So here's where i'm going after running around the barn lot , After last years record basis bids to get corn in , it sure looks like they ( the elevators ) learned there lesson well , by bringing in as much of the crop now , then they have much of there needs covered and will not need to bid up basis to get corn next summer . Corn has had a problem breaking thur the mid 7's , was thinking IF and that's a big IF it could test 8 I would do a HTA , but think as of now that may be a bad idea , as they will not need to raise basis as much ? Maybe the best idea is to just sell it and move on to my next adventure . Have a great day !

[Hobbyfarmer]

I've had some of those same thoughts.

Then I have seen the basis come back to even around here and there is still acres and acres to get harvested in this area. (local phenomena)

Reports of calls from buyers to producers wanting corn. Very little carry in the market...they want/need it now? This is still harvest time. Are they trying to get it all now so they will not need it later?

I think $8 anything corn will buy 3/4 of what's out in farmers control.

Maybe with the fiscal meltdown looming on the horizon now will be a "not bad time" to sell extra and pay the tax...might be significantly higher next year if the incumbent gets back in and he gets his way with "soaking the rich". We will/are in his gunsights.

Absolutely No slow down in the check writing out of that place in Washington DC.

I still do not believe SA can produce enough between now and Sept next year to keep the wheels from coming off.

Three things needed for survival

Food (can be broken down further into food, water, air)

Fiber

Fuel

We are not out of any of them but there will be a just barely in time for two of them shortly.

5% shortage or abundance causes wild price swings.   My core belief is we are more than 5% short in course feed grains.

Politics and finances can override many things in the near term but evenually it evens back out usually by extremes.

[ehoff4187600]

If aflo will grow in the bin it will grow in their bin also. Don't fall for that. They want control of the grain plain and simple. If they don't handle bushels they don't make money.

[Palouser]

I absolutely agree. It's a volume game. Doubly so in a short crop year. Once under their control you'll receive less in the end than the neighbor that has it in the bin and sells at the same time you do.