Just a guess on Fred

[sdholloway56]

nearly every advance forecast run this year has leaned too far west- including on hurricane tracks.

Don't think it was ever far enough west to shake up MW weather a lot but probably not now.

This one, anyway. Hurricane season just getting over, but the growing season is nearing that point as well.

[wrightcattle]

This year has been hell in the west. 

Lot of drought and lot of big fires 

Reminds me of Bear Wallow fire bout 10 years back. Burned right at 850,000acres AZ and NM. 

anyway hopefully there gets to be some h2o in the air here.  hurricane or whatever might help. 

[roarintiger1]

Hurricane season almost over? I think not. 

It may be at the halfway point.

[wrightcattle]

Hurricanes at halfway point... I tend to agree .

Guess we'll see.  

[sdholloway56]

Yes, brain fart.

Hurricane season just heading into peak.

[sdholloway56]

Big miss on that- a little farther west and barely a TS. But might push a little moisture into the mid-South and far ECB.

Next one looks better organized and currently heading for FLA penn.