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12-20-2017 11:22 AM
No, IH, I have been very consistent. We "should" or normally would, have some type of price recovery in 2018. This merely sets the stage for an all out collapse in the 2020-2021 time frame. Maybe it extends out to 2024. This would just be a supply issue somewhere that gets us some relief. Clearly the globe can produce way too much food (despite the fake news to the contrary) and the global debt ponzi scheme will unravel at some point.
So, it is just a 12 to 18 month recovery setting up for the next down leg. I like to think of it as 1983. If we review the history books, 1983 was a gift that very few capitalized upon because they couldn't sell out 3 years in advance and did not have subsidized crop insurance either. Hopefully, we will be able to use the many gifts we are given to position ourselves for the winter that follows.
12-28-2017 07:32 AM
China....the Red Ponzi...cushion the blow....it will likely be the source of the blowout....
We have a detailed plan we share on the website...you have to be pre-positioned with
very strong relationships with Big C and The A.....
Not saying it is a good plan but it did perform very well in the 2010 thru 2016 window.
02-12-2018 02:38 PM
China's total debt to GDP is in the category of Greece...it is a rouge wave that will crest at some point.
We in ag have pretty much put all our soybean eggs in one basket, a basket full of barbells of debt.
02-12-2018 02:41 PM
It was just TIME for wheat to stop slipping sideways. After such a nice bounce, a wise merchandiser of wheat in his bins might consider selling some Out of the money may or July calls.
02-13-2018 10:18 AM
Time ,,,, wheat does have that appearance. It does not trend upward because of fundamental changes and strength of demand......... gluten is not the go too starch... yet....... unless that 6 % increase in craft beer is wheat based and world wide??
But so far this correction is just like the last one........ a gasp for breath of a dying market. It may be the fact that quality wheat is in short supply but substitute lower quality wheat is plentiful. Because of its rapid rise without obvious demand improvement......soooo
1.... Is the digital age a time when news and data can be transmitted and shared rapidly.... or provide the opportunity to control the information/flood misinformation on demand and need in order to inspire volatility.
2..... Has that digital production enhancement(more bushels per dollar investment or human participation) flooded the world with production improvement?
3 Does the travel and accessibility of commodities create the appearance that smaller supplies per person are surplus, or has the digital improvement in mechanized agriculture exploded productive ability?
4 Is more information and faster information revealing, or just confusing...?