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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,421
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

Time, your opinions are always of interest to me.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,155
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

No, IH, I have been very consistent. We "should" or normally would, have some type of price recovery in 2018. This merely sets the stage for an all out collapse in the 2020-2021 time frame. Maybe it extends out to 2024. This would just be a supply issue somewhere that gets us some relief. Clearly the globe can produce way too much food (despite the fake news to the contrary) and the global debt ponzi scheme will unravel at some point.

 

So, it is just a 12 to 18 month recovery setting up for the next down leg. I like to think of it as 1983. If we review the history books, 1983 was a gift that very few capitalized upon because they couldn't sell out 3 years in advance and did not have subsidized crop insurance either. Hopefully, we will be able to use the many gifts we are given to position ourselves for the winter that follows.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 946
Registered: ‎01-03-2015
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Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

How do you to plan to sell multiple years out and won't Chinese ethanol demand cushion the blow ?
Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,155
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

China....the Red Ponzi...cushion the blow....it will likely be the source of the blowout....

 

We have a detailed plan we share on the website...you have to be pre-positioned with

very strong relationships with Big C and The A.....

 

Not saying it is a good plan but it did perform very well in the 2010 thru 2016 window.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 946
Registered: ‎01-03-2015
0

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

Looks like I have to sign up and pay a fee to get the goods.
Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,155
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

That was the idea :-)

 

Seriously though, in terms of wheat, a Weekly gap higher in the KC....

Moooooo

Senior Contributor
Posts: 946
Registered: ‎01-03-2015
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Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

So why do you think China will be the source of the blowout? Don't you think they will continue to increase imports of corn, soy, ethanol?
Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,155
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

China's total debt to GDP is in the category of Greece...it is a rouge wave that will crest at some point.

We in ag have pretty much put all our soybean eggs in one basket, a basket full of barbells of debt.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,155
Registered: ‎05-20-2010

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

It was just TIME for wheat to stop slipping sideways. After such a nice bounce, a wise merchandiser of wheat in his bins might consider selling some Out of the money may or July calls.

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,415
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

Time ,,,, wheat does have that appearance.  It does not trend upward because of fundamental changes and strength of demand......... gluten is not the go too starch... yet....... unless that 6 % increase in craft beer is wheat based and world wide??Smiley Happy

But so far this correction is just like the last one........ a gasp for breath of a dying market.   It may be the fact that quality wheat is in short supply but substitute lower quality wheat is plentiful.  Because of its rapid rise without obvious demand improvement......soooo

 

1.... Is the digital age a time when news and data can be transmitted and shared rapidly.... or provide the opportunity to control the information/flood misinformation  on demand and need in order to inspire volatility.

2..... Has that digital production enhancement(more bushels per dollar investment or human participation) flooded the world with production improvement?

3    Does the travel and accessibility of commodities create the appearance that smaller supplies per person are surplus, or has the digital improvement in mechanized agriculture exploded productive ability?   

4   Is more information and faster information revealing, or just confusing...?