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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Just for the Record...Mooooooo

In my slight view it is a terrific TIME to be bullish wheat, corn, and basically all commodities, coffee, sugar, silver (except soybeans, they remain pretty over-valued and always bottom last, well not always, "usually". Soybeans only hope is a weather story which is certainly at least a 50:50 chance, so they might be ok too...but not relative to wheat, corn, coffee, silver, platinum, or even farmland. Land seems to be gaining some momentum of late as well.

 

I am not saying you should go buy them against the carry, nor am I saying the corn has to go higher this week. Just making a point that when we look back on this quarter in 2019, it will be viewed as a very good time to be bullish the cash commodities. jmo

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19 Replies
clayton58
Veteran Advisor

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

Time, i certainly hope your right.  Im tired of being "long and wrong" the wheat!

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JimMeade
Veteran Advisor

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

Any specific reasons for the bullish stance?

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

I am curious also Time...

 

 

One thing is for sure corn is doomed if wheat does not make some improvement........... from an acre choice standpoint on the fringe.

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ihtractortherap
Senior Contributor

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

That's a nice story,Time. Now its time to be bullish on a bunch of stuff we have too much of? You want to chase farmland? Better off dreaming of sugarplums!
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hardnox
Advisor

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

Given the big spec short posture in grains and a lot of comms (record short in arabica coffee) I wouldn't rule out some revolution of funds to comms and short covering in the new year.

 

But I think that bitcoin will suck up a lot of the more speculative money. And maybe go a lot higher, and then destroy a big chunk of speculative capital. Which isn't bullish anything.

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies aren't yet big enough to engender systemic risk.

 

But I think their mission is to grow to whatever size is necessary for them to be and then create just that.

 

Unless someone cares to stop them.

 

 

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

Vs. gold, silver has a better chart and COT setup, and if you're looking for a Risk On environment it usually outperforms.

 

But I want gold purely as a hedge against the risk of extreme geopolitical events and hope it doesn't turn out to be a great investment.

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timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

No need to share any more information, the responses here kind of prove the point. Pretty much all hope is lost.......

 

This is the same way it has been at every major low in history, thus it is TIME to be optimistic!

 

Not chasing land, merely making the point that it is up about 10% this year in our area, about $1000 an acre. No, the next leg higher might be the last and best time to sell land until the 2030's. Everyone reads the words, but everyone takes it to mean what they want it too, confirmation bias. Simple human nature and I am surely at fault quite often. I'm actually pretty bearish land but not if we get some type of commodity bull move. Rising interest rates will kill land values soon enough.

 

The bullish case for corn/wheat is quite persuasive but no one sees it. It is a market about the future after all, thus price changes on the change in perception of the future. Thus, the fact the energies have all kinds of reasons to go much higher and its impact on ethanol/biofuels is ignored. The chinese announcement on ethanol is wildly bullish corn but it is ignored because it is 18 months away.

 

btw...I really don't want anyone to agree with me...if many do it means I might be wrong 🙂

 

Simpy put, 2017 is similar to 1987. not a copy but some similarity, might 2018 be similar to 1988, chances are...

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ihtractortherap
Senior Contributor

Re: Just for the Record...Mooooooo

Last week you were looking for a ag depression in 2020, now you're wildly bullish corn in that time frame.
Man , one of us is confused.
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