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10-06-2017 01:26 PM
don't be surprised if NASS writes a 47.5 bu bean yield next week. Now, that the entire industry of guru's has raced to the other side of the Ferry, they might lean back a bit toward reality.... Such news should get beans up 30 I would guess...right back to where they started from...seems like there was a song about getting right back to where we started from? I would still argue that the bean acreage number is 500,000 to high as well due to DC that never got planted. Since the money only follows "perception" and NASS "guidance", who knows where this mess ends up...but the reports from the field in no way support a new national yield record. Reports from farmers with scales from around the entire growing region put the bean yield about 5 to 10% below last year, in no way a short crop, but certainly not a record one either.
btw...I cut some 90 bu beans a couple days ago...it was unfortunate that whole field only averaged 51 on planted acres, but there were 90's in the sweet spots...kind of just like we expected... :-)
Rained out for today, going to take the better half ballroom dancing tonight to celebrate!
10-07-2017 08:17 AM
I hope they do. The problem is, when have you ever seen a government agency admit to a huge mistake. They usually double down on the mistake. The reality is this wet weather is taking bushels away from the western belt.
10-08-2017 07:08 AM
Dang it Time - 90 bpa - Won't it be nice to cut a whole field like that ? : )))
Early beans ( April ) have been pretty good - 70's -- Yet - around here - a lot went in Mid May - I cut a 130 last weekend - WHOLE field average was 52.2 - I did spend a lot of time to calibrate the monitor - So feel numbers are very close - Neighbor - right across the road cut a 110 - made 47 - So same deal = mid May . Moisture was like others said - dry - 130 average was 10.2 .
Got 2 inch's 10/5 - Checked field yesterday at 7:30 am - wind was whipping here ! Ground was still a little softer than I would like - Started cutting at 11:30 am - tested 14.8 - Some way we picked up right at 5 bpa from when we last cut ! We cut till ???????????????? It rained again - around 5 pm - moisture down to 13.8 - cut 76 acres - average on it was 57 - Amazing what some water can make !
Now - one thing I have noticed around here is --- some of them big yield number fields have many acres left uncut ! As in replant - Go back to what Time said - had some 90's - yet total acres were a lot lower . I would say there is some cherry picking going on around here - lmao
Ended up with another 7 tenths last night , so will be a few days before we cut again .
Everybody - Be safe !
10-08-2017 08:36 PM - edited 10-08-2017 09:18 PM
I will be shocked if USDA lowers their numbers....... That's not in their job description anymore. You can bet that if and that's a big if, they lower the yield and total production numbers, the demand numbers will also be lowered and the carryout numbers won't be changed.
Of course I'd really like to be wrong.................
10-12-2017 12:34 PM - edited 10-13-2017 06:14 AM
Why heck, they only had to lower the yield to 49.5 to get beans up 30. :-)
If we could just get some wet weather to delay harvest and push it back into snow for the guys up north....oh wait...that is happening too...maybe there is a story here. Carryout at 430 with them sticking with them RAISING harvested acres, and yields...lower acres for next year...maybe there is a story here...seems like the stretching pretty hard to keep a lid on things to me.
10-17-2017 06:30 AM
The lack of postings on this site is a pretty good confirming indicator...
Peak harvest week, how much more bearish can it get next week...
it can't jmo
Silver, after the lows from 9/1 to 9/10, there is really nothing until
the annual Epiphany turn. We "should" just grind higher once we
get all the harvest tucked away this week.
IF we could just get the feds to increase the CRP acreage by
4 million....all it would take to double wheat prices probably. It
would be a tremendous ROI for the feds.