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Veteran Advisor

Just so you know, & get ready for it, the Columbia Covid Model.

As far as marketing agricultural products and the farm economy is concerned, everything now depends on how the pandemic plays out, both here in the US and worldwide.  A few days ago, it became obvious that the more "favorable" IHME model was beginning to fail badly.  At the time it wasn't yet clear which of the three Columbia model scenarios we would follow. 

  Now there is beginning to be some indication of how it's going to go.   If you look at a graph of new cases, you can that the number of new cases has been stubbornly high at just below 30,000 new cases per day.  When you compare the two mostly Columbia models, the 20% mitigation and 30% mitigation measures to observed, you can see that it more like the 20% mitigation model than the 30% model.  If our mitigation measure were in the range of 30% effective the number of new cases should have already declined below 20,000 new cases per day.  We're not even close.  On the other hand, if we were achieving at least 20% mitigation we should be exactly where we are, in that 25-30,000 new cases range.

   The troubling thing is, where that leaves us two weeks from now, in the  35-55,000 new cases per day range, with it's corresponding 6% deaths. Fauci's going to be right, the second wave will worse than the first.

  What's even worse, next week many states will begin to relax mitigation measures even more.  This could get really ugly.

columbia models.png
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Veteran Advisor

Common Sense


@rickgthf wrote:

As far as marketing agricultural products and the farm economy is concerned, everything now depends on how the pandemic plays out, both here in the US and worldwide.  A few days ago, it became obvious that the more "favorable" IHME model was beginning to fail badly.  At the time it wasn't yet clear which of the three Columbia model scenarios we would follow. 

  Now there is beginning to be some indication of how it's going to go.   If you look at a graph of new cases, you can that the number of new cases has been stubbornly high at just below 30,000 new cases per day.  When you compare the two mostly Columbia models, the 20% mitigation and 30% mitigation measures to observed, you can see that it more like the 20% mitigation model than the 30% model.  If our mitigation measure were in the range of 30% effective the number of new cases should have already declined below 20,000 new cases per day.  We're not even close.  On the other hand, if we were achieving at least 20% mitigation we should be exactly where we are, in that 25-30,000 new cases range.

   The troubling thing is, where that leaves us two weeks from now, in the  35-55,000 new cases per day range, with it's corresponding 6% deaths. Fauci's going to be right, the second wave will worse than the first.

  What's even worse, next week many states will begin to relax mitigation measures even more.  This could get really ugly.


The heat wind and sun will be a demise of corona. 

Perhaps a model somewhere will account for Spring. 

 

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Advisor

Re: Common Sense

If that fails we could always try direct UV light or injection... ya just never know$$$$$$

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Senior Advisor

Re: Common Sense

In the words of Jim Mora (sorta). SECOND WAVE, SECOND WAVE?

I'm afraid we're going to be at or around R1, at best, which will just be a very long plateau of a couple thousand deaths a day. The hot spots may be cooling off but the country as a whole is not. We have nowhere near the testing and contact tracing or national will to do better.

Hopefully therapeutics (and not Pine-Sol, hydroxychoroquine or butt lights) will reduce mortality and stresses on the medical system some. 

Realistically, 24-36 months to a vaccine, if it happens. There are reasons why there's never been a vaccine for common cold coronaviruses.

It would be nice to hope for the Moon Shot but that was a different country that did that, and its an entirely different problem.

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Contributor

Re: Common Sense

Hey @illinifarmer 

If that fails we could always try direct UV light or injection... ya just never know$$$$$$

I gave the Trump cure to my wife- Lysol injection and go sit in the sun for a few hours...

I think she's cured- she hasn't coughed in a week...she hasn't moved in a week either, I should probably go check on her.

Yeah, she's cured- her temperature was 103 degrees last week and now she's down to 62.

Thanks President Trump, you're a genius!

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Senior Advisor

Re: Common Sense

There's a bit of sun behind every cloud, though.

7% of Americans and 20% of Republicans say they believe disinfectants and UV light are effective treatments.

Unfortunately, the Darwin metaphor only goes so far. Not only are some going to kill themselves off, they may also kill me.

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