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zman343
Contributor

Re: Just the beginning for corn

I don't think any of this will really matter, unless the crop would be a disaster which doesn't look likely now.  Economies around the world look to be slowing down.  If it continues wealth will shrink and people will be forced to scale back on everything.  As far as markets go, commodity markets are betting big on inflation while the bond market says deflation (2 year note yield a record low near .50%, what a deal!!!).

 

I say it is time to be risk averse.  Use this rally to buy some puts for insurance and maybe sell some out of the money calls.  Then sit back and watch how it all plays out.

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Tend to disagree, demand for corn sucks

mark, what happened to the 50% up on all agris? wheat just blew thru it  like a wide spot in the road. (thats called a small town). corn at 5.00 hits its head on the ceiling, soy at 12  and wheat 10 plus.  then look out below. that said these warm night are taking the top yield off of corn. anything over 65 at night steals sugar from the kernal. been 70s at night for awhile. look higher on all for now. d7

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rightone
Veteran Contributor

Re: Tend to disagree, demand for corn sucks

Shockingly low will be States like SD and MO.

Granted EVERY SE State and E Coast State has drouth affect, so none to shiney there.

KS will be lower ( last month of heat really cooked em ).

NE will be lower too.

 

IA, North half is fantastic...South Half is lower ( S 1/3 btw is basically a No crop in 010 ).

 

MN and WI....Both Record Corn and Beans in progress.

 

 

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Tend to disagree, demand for corn sucks

nebraska lower? mark with rain thay have had the dryland should pop up. but you get around more than i do.  that said  like last year show me 160 first. too many holes in what i have seen in my 100 mile orbit. d7

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rightone
Veteran Contributor

Re: Dave, should be another 200% Up

on wheat.

 

Granted Russia will buy pretty much hand to mouth thru the AU harvest.

 

Keep in mind though they will likely buy Double the amounts that most expect.

 

Reason is, they're planting in dry dirt...if that crop does not start ....they need 30 million acres of 50 bu wheat...from somewhere.

This deal appears to be one of those 5 to 7 year drouth deals there.

 

Granted Russia's export wheat customers, gonna need some bushels from...well somewhere also.

 

$15 wheat?    Why not.   Russia is an oil rich country so cash is not an issue.

 

Sorry but just do not see corn coming along for much of the ride.

 

Beans should enjoy this run...say $18 cash.

 

 

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rightone
Veteran Contributor

Re:Dave, check Your

culverts, bridges, roads before harvest.

 

Lotta washout stuff UNERNEATH culverts etc this year.

 

NE has some great corn, BUT some of their Always great corn areas are drowned out ( big areas Missouri River bottoms, Platte etc ).

 

Looks to me like harvest will be a PIA in alot of areas.   There's some fresh gullies and pretty deep "between row " washouts in alot of fields...real good corn hiding it on those hills.

 

Drive along and lose a combine?   No....just the front half. LOL.

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dapper7
Senior Contributor

Re: Re:Dave, check Your

mark, a little wager perhaps. another 8 on beans? a pickup 5th wheel of your calves delivered( that have been grazing on rocks and scenery) that beans dont make 18 dollars a bushel by march 1st 2011. what do you say? d7

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JRfrom OR
Frequent Contributor

Re: Dave, should be another 200% Up

Another big wild card here is the dollar.  We've been hearing complaining from central bankers about the worthiness of the dollar.  This was unheard of until recently.  It would be no suprise to see some dollar rich states start cashing in their reserves for hard assets.

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rightone
Veteran Contributor

Re: Re:hmm, Dave, and Your suggestion as

what You may collateralize your side of the wager with?

 

I figure calves will be worth Double to triple Up by spring, but soy is only a net 70%  up by spring.

 

Dave it's that diff from 170% gross up vs the 250% Up on the calves that tells me maybe a need to drink a few strait shots of E so to speak.

 

 

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67guy
Veteran Contributor

Re: Just the beginning for corn

You just don't get it Zman.  The crop doesn't have to be a disaster for markets to go up.  A trendline or slighly higher yield is going to be what we have to have to keep everybody happy.  Despite what you want to believe demand is not going down anytime soon.  They only way that happens is if this market continues to climb into harvest and we see $5.00 corn.  That would slow usage dramatically.  We don't want that.  I see a corn market with a 4 as the front number for a while yet.  Obviously if we come in with a national yield of 170 or something like that all bets are off.  I don't see that happening though.  It may seem like I am a raging bull but really I'm not.  I've been bearish corn for about 9 months now but the dynamics have changed in the last 45 days.  I'm still not bullish but the market has my attention now.  I just don't understand why you continue to look for nothing but negatives in the grain markets.  You've been this way for years now.  You must be in a constant state of being short or something. 

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