Re: KC Wheat
like you suggested up top, maybe use a pullback before stocks report to get out of puts...from what i'm seeing in the winter wheat mkt, US prod could be hit a tad. Technically, this has been a pretty fierce leg up..
i don't have a KC chart, but on srw - don't think highs are in at 723^4, and I'm hoping it can pullback to 660-640 area for re-entry into longs --but it may be too strong for that - i could be dreaming.
The next shoe?
From the reports I'm hearing I'll guess Kansas and other areas will begin confirming worse than expected winterkill. It is only as it greens up that winterkill can truly be quantified on a regional basis. But another cold spell will maybe delay that?
On top of that is going to be wheat smaller than usual for this time of year. That can be corrected with the right conditions later but the probabilities are probably not favorable - especially the longer it is dry, if that is the case for an area.